This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: VSAT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-11 Checkpoint: 2026-10-11 Entry price: $69.54 Latest price: $72.01 as of 2026-10-09 Stock return since entry: +3.6% Signal return: -3.6% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated VSAT a Sell because I thought the stock was already pricing in a recovery that the operating results had not fully earned. My original case leaned on the gap between improving Q1 2026 results and a still-rich valuation, especially the 182.4x forward P/E and 3.3x EV/revenue, which I said required a cleaner earnings reset than the company had delivered. I also flagged leverage and execution risk, with quarterly revenue below the level I wanted to see and net debt/EBITDA as a key pressure point.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| VSAT (this call) | +3.6% |
| CIEN | +1.0% |
| ERIC | -17.0% |
| GSAT | +5.0% |
| IRDM | -2.0% |
| VIAV | +11.1% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have lost 3.6%, so my Sell call has not worked yet. VSAT is up modestly, which means the market has continued to give the company more credit than my thesis expected, even though the original valuation and recovery concerns were explicit. The peer set has been mixed, with several names higher and several lower, so VSAT has not clearly diverged in a way that would rescue the bearish call. The specific part of my thesis that has not been validated is the idea that the stock was already too far ahead of the operating reset; price action has not confirmed that view.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If VSAT can keep revenue above the $1.1B quarterly floor I highlighted and continue improving cash generation toward the high-single-digit FCF margin range, that would weaken my bearish case further. I would also be wrong if leverage stays contained and net debt/EBITDA does not move toward the 4.0x danger zone I called out. On the other hand, a renewed revenue slip or a clear deterioration in balance-sheet leverage would still support the original Sell thesis.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.34 | +159.8% | -159.8% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $24.03 | +35.5% | -35.5% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $194.75 | +24.6% | -24.6% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $9.58 | +6.6% | -6.6% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.44 | +0.1% | -0.1% | Incorrect so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.43 | -7.5% | +7.5% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $294.53 | -7.8% | +7.8% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $360.98 | -11.6% | +11.6% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $124.75 | +12.8% | +12.8% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $213.44 | -13.8% | +13.8% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $84.27 | -14.3% | +14.3% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $9.65 | -17.3% | +17.3% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $49.12 | -18.9% | +18.9% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $311.63 | -20.4% | +20.4% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $5.77 | -26.3% | +26.3% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $7.20 | -18.3% | +27.4% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $13.52 | -38.1% | +38.1% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $212.65 | -44.1% | +44.1% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.43 | -48.5% | +48.5% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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