This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: VSAT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-11 Checkpoint: 2026-09-11 Entry price: $69.54 Latest price: $74.18 as of 2026-09-10 Stock return since entry: +6.7% Signal return: -6.7% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated VSAT a Sell because I thought the stock was already pricing in a recovery that the operating data had not fully earned. My focus was on the gap between a still-imperfect revenue picture and a very demanding valuation, especially the 182.4x forward P/E and 3.3x EV/revenue, which I felt left too much room for disappointment. I also said I wanted to see more proof that revenue could clear $3.5B annually, operating margin could turn positive, and FCF margin could improve before I would get more constructive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| VSAT (this call) | +6.7% |
| CIEN | -21.5% |
| ERIC | -12.0% |
| GSAT | +3.3% |
| IRDM | -2.7% |
| VIAV | -5.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that call has not worked: if I had shorted VSAT at my entry price, I would be down 6.7% over the review window, so the bearish signal has lost money. The stock has moved higher while the peer group has been mostly weaker to mixed, which means VSAT has not followed the broad downtrend I was implicitly expecting from a fragile recovery story. More importantly, the specific valuation concern I highlighted has not been enough on its own to force the stock lower, and I have not yet seen the operating deterioration I warned about. At this point, the original thesis has not been validated by price action, even though the underlying business still needs to prove it can sustain the recovery I described.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If revenue continues to hold above the $1.1B quarterly level and the company keeps improving EBITDA, net income, and FCF margin toward the high single digits, that would further weaken my bearish case. I would also be wrong if net debt/EBITDA stays below 4.0x while the market continues to reward the stock despite the still-rich valuation. The clearest thing that could still prove me wrong is a sustained operating inflection that makes the 182.4x forward P/E and 3.3x EV/revenue look less demanding because earnings and cash flow are finally catching up.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $4.65 | +90.6% | -90.6% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $24.20 | +36.4% | -36.4% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $10.21 | +15.9% | -23.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.87 | +20.9% | -20.9% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.82 | +5.2% | -5.2% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.08 | +3.2% | -3.2% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $158.85 | +1.7% | -1.7% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.43 | -2.1% | +2.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.87 | -6.9% | +6.9% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $90.60 | -7.9% | +7.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $366.10 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $216.96 | -12.4% | +12.4% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $268.92 | -15.8% | +15.8% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $49.53 | -18.3% | +18.3% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $135.83 | +22.8% | +22.8% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $286.84 | -26.7% | +26.7% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.94 | -27.0% | +27.0% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $9.69 | -32.8% | +32.8% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $232.20 | -39.0% | +39.0% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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