This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: TTWO Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-28 Checkpoint: 2026-08-28 Entry price: $247.62 Latest price: $235.39 as of 2026-08-28 Stock return since entry: -4.9% Signal return: +4.9% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that TTWO was already priced for a successful Grand Theft Auto VI cycle, even though the reported business still showed only 2.3% operating margin, 11.8% EBITDA margin, and negative net income. My view was that the stock needed real margin improvement, not just faith in the launch, and I said I would only get more constructive if EBITDA moved above $786M and operating margin pushed into the high single digits.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| TTWO (this call) | -4.9% |
| EA | +0.0% |
| NTES | -8.1% |
| OTGLY | +0.3% |
| TCEHY | -3.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that bearish call has worked: if I had shorted TTWO at my entry price, I would be up about 4.9% over this review window. The stock has drifted lower while the peer set has been mixed to weaker overall, with several comparables also down, so TTWO has not shown the kind of relative strength that would have challenged my thesis. More importantly, I still do not have evidence that the specific margin step-up I was waiting for has arrived; the original concern was that investors were paying for a launch-driven earnings reset that had not yet shown up in the run rate. That said, this is still an early check-in, so I would not overstate the case beyond saying the market has not yet disproved my skepticism.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a clear pre-launch or launch-driven improvement in the numbers I highlighted: EBITDA moving above $786M, operating margin climbing into the high single digits, and free cash flow staying above a 21.8% margin. If TTWO shows that kind of earnings conversion around the GTA VI release, my Sell would no longer fit the facts. I would also have to reconsider if the launch slips again or if the first post-launch quarters fail to lift bookings and margins in a durable way.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.15 | +111.1% | -111.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.06 | +30.0% | -30.0% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.33 | +14.9% | -14.9% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.56 | +8.5% | -12.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.32 | +6.3% | -6.3% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.84 | +5.5% | -5.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $69.92 | +0.5% | -0.5% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $154.54 | -1.1% | +1.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.14 | -7.9% | +7.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $367.32 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.47 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $80.68 | -17.9% | +17.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $254.55 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $133.93 | +21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $47.17 | -22.3% | +22.3% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.56 | -26.8% | +26.8% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $282.65 | -27.8% | +27.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.18 | -30.5% | +30.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $235.33 | -38.2% | +38.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
Leave a Comment