This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: SIMO Rating: Sell Published: 2026-09-21 Checkpoint: 2026-10-21 Entry price: $269.00 Latest price: $213.70 as of 2026-10-20 Stock return since entry: -20.6% Signal return: +20.6% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated SIMO a Sell because I thought the stock was pricing in a recovery before the cash generation had actually turned. My focus was on the gap between the operating rebound — Q2 2026 revenue of $451M — and the still-negative TTM levered free cash flow of -$196.9M, alongside a valuation that looked rich at 7.0x EV/revenue and 37.2x EV/EBITDA. I said I would only turn more constructive once free cash flow was positive and sustained.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| SIMO (this call) | -20.6% |
| MXL | -11.8% |
| SNDK | -22.9% |
| SWKS | -7.3% |
| SYNA | +23.9% |
| WDC | -17.7% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have earned 20.6%, which means the Sell call has worked to date. The stock has fallen from my entry price, and that move is consistent with my view that the market was paying for a recovery that had not yet shown up in cash. The peer group has been mixed, with several comparables also lower but SYNA higher, so SIMO’s decline was not just a blanket move across the whole set. The specific concern I highlighted — negative free cash flow despite strong revenue growth — remains the key part of the thesis that has been validated by the price action.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if SIMO’s free cash flow turns positive and stays there for two consecutive quarters, because that would undercut the core reason I stayed bearish. I would also reassess if revenue holds above roughly $342.1M per quarter and the company shows that the Q2 spike was durable rather than a one-off. If the business keeps generating negative operating cash flow while still supporting capital returns, that would keep the original caution intact; if cash conversion improves materially, it would not.
The September 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Buy | $117.26 | $102.45 | -12.6% | -12.6% | Incorrect so far |
| ASX | Sell | $41.63 | $40.77 | -2.1% | +2.1% | Correct so far |
| ATI | Sell | $189.65 | $183.07 | -3.5% | +3.5% | Correct so far |
| BORR | Sell | $4.44 | $4.22 | -5.0% | +5.0% | Correct so far |
| CHTR | Sell | $117.55 | $110.03 | -6.4% | +6.4% | Correct so far |
| PL | Sell | $16.42 | $13.40 | -18.4% | +18.4% | Correct so far |
| ALAB | Sell | $351.31 | $284.80 | -18.9% | +18.9% | Correct so far |
| RXT | Sell | $3.49 | $2.71 | -22.3% | +22.3% | Correct so far |
| DOCN | Sell | $136.29 | $99.48 | -27.0% | +27.0% | Correct so far |
| ICHR | Sell | $59.42 | $42.23 | -28.9% | +28.9% | Correct so far |
| LAR | Sell | $6.70 | $4.46 | -33.4% | +33.4% | Correct so far |
| CUE | Sell | $26.96 | $17.04 | -36.8% | +36.8% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Technology
How are our Technology calls doing overall, and where does SIMO sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Sell | 2026-07-08 | +59.4% |
| AEHR | Sell | 2026-06-18 | +46.2% |
| SOUN | Sell | 2026-06-14 | +35.9% |
| SMTC | Strong Sell | 2026-10-13 | +31.8% |
| ONTO | Sell | 2026-07-14 | +31.2% |
| AMKR | Sell | 2026-07-27 | +31.2% |
| NVTS | Sell | 2026-10-03 | +29.2% |
| ICHR | Sell | 2026-09-27 | +28.9% |
We saw Industrials lead the league table with a 92% hit rate and +24.8% average signal return, while Technology also stayed strong at 92% and +14.5% across 24 calls. Communication Services was perfect at 100% with +15.9%, and the thin sectors Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, and Basic Materials should be treated cautiously because they each had fewer than 3 calls or only 3 to 4 calls, even though Utilities posted a 33% hit rate and +17.3%. The best call in Technology was CIFR at +59.4%, and the worst was NLST at -141.4%.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 13 | 92% | +24.8% | BW +74.3% | CAR -12.6% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.3% | FLNC +58.9% | TLN -5.3% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +15.9% | LUMN +29.1% | GTN +4.1% |
| Technology | 24 | 92% | +14.5% | CIFR +59.4% | NLST -141.4% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +13.1% | MARA +35.9% | BMNR -28.6% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.1% | PENN +19.4% | RRGB +6.8% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 100% | +12.5% | LAR +33.4% | USAR +0.4% |
| Healthcare | 7 | 71% | +9.9% | CUE +36.8% | SDGR -34.5% |
| Energy | 4 | 75% | +4.7% | TPL +16.2% | VNOM -10.0% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 100% | +20.1% | SRG +36.3% | SKYH +3.9% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +6.1% | NXE +18.5% | FISV -6.3% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +41.1% (2) | -0.4% (7) | +17.9% (3) | +20.0% (6) | +16.0% (6) |
| Industrials | +74.3% (1) | +37.1% (5) | +7.1% (2) | +3.1% (3) | +19.7% (2) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +7.5% (5) | +36.8% (1) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +16.5% (1) | +13.8% (2) | +6.4% (1) | +29.1% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +14.8% (1) | — | +33.4% (1) | +1.0% (2) |
| Financial Services | — | +12.4% (3) | — | — | +15.3% (1) |
| Energy | — | +16.2% (1) | -10.0% (1) | +5.0% (1) | +7.6% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.1% (3) | — | — |
| Utilities | — | +58.9% (1) | -1.8% (1) | — | -5.3% (1) |
| Unclassified | — | — | +18.5% (1) | — | -6.3% (1) |
| Real Estate | +3.9% (1) | — | +36.3% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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