This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: GTN Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-20 Checkpoint: 2026-10-20 Entry price: $4.83 Latest price: $4.48 as of 2026-10-19 Stock return since entry: -7.2% Signal return: +7.2% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Previous checkpoint: our 1-month review (2026-09-20) was correct (stock return -8.1% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated GTN a Sell because I thought the operating rebound was real, but the balance sheet was still too stretched to justify treating the stock as safely mispriced. My key concern was leverage: I pointed to 8.3x net debt/EBITDA and $5.9B of debt, and I said I would only move toward Hold if leverage fell below 7.0x. I also noted that the cash flow looked strong on paper, with a 30.1% TTM FCF yield, but I did not think that alone offset the refinancing overhang.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| GTN (this call) | -7.2% |
| AMCX | -16.4% |
| IHRT | -45.3% |
| SGA | -6.8% |
| SSP | -16.3% |
| TSQ | -34.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my Sell call would have earned 7.2%, which means the bearish signal has worked to date. GTN has moved lower while the peer group has also been mostly weak, but several of the comparables fell even more sharply, so the stock’s decline fits a broader soft tape rather than a unique collapse. The part of my thesis that has held up best is the idea that leverage remained the central issue: I was not asking for perfection, only for clear de-risking below 7.0x net debt/EBITDA, and that has not been demonstrated in the price action I can review here. The strong FCF yield I highlighted has not been enough, by itself, to invalidate the bearish stance.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If GTN can show that net debt/EBITDA is moving decisively below 7.0x while the business keeps producing the kind of cash flow I cited, I would have to revisit the Sell. I would also be challenged if the stock starts to re-rate higher while the leverage burden is still elevated, because that would suggest the market is looking through the refinancing risk more than I expected. A renewed deterioration in cash generation, or leverage moving back toward the 9.0x area I flagged as a bear-case threshold, would instead reinforce the original call.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $23.12 | +32.9% | -32.9% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $45.53 | +9.3% | -9.3% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.96 | +1.7% | -1.7% | Incorrect so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $191.25 | +1.5% | +1.5% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $8.92 | -6.2% | +6.2% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $243.84 | -6.5% | +6.5% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $191.42 | -9.0% | +9.0% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $5.90 | -13.1% | +13.1% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.42 | -13.9% | +13.9% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $66.29 | -14.9% | +14.9% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $6.43 | -17.1% | +17.1% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $8.50 | -18.3% | +18.3% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $14.71 | -20.7% | +20.7% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $272.20 | -20.8% | +20.8% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.01 | -27.3% | +27.3% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.16 | -28.4% | +28.4% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $102.89 | -30.2% | +30.2% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.57 | -25.6% | +38.4% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Communication Services
How are our Communication Services calls doing overall, and where does GTN sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPHR | Sell | 2026-08-27 | +30.2% |
| LUMN | Strong Sell | 2026-10-08 | +29.7% |
| TTWO | Sell | 2026-07-28 | +17.2% |
| CHTR | Sell | 2026-09-24 | +7.7% |
We saw Communication Services lead the league table with 5 calls, a 100% hit rate, and a +18.4% average signal return, while Industrials was the strongest larger sample with 13 calls, a 92% hit rate, and a +23.6% average signal return. Technology also stayed near the top with 24 calls, a 92% hit rate, and a +14.1% average signal return, while Energy lagged with 4 calls, a 50% hit rate, and a +3.4% average signal return. The best call was BW at +74.3% in Industrials, and the worst was NLST at -143.9% in Technology; thin sectors were not ranked.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 13 | 92% | +23.6% | BW +74.3% | CAR -12.7% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +18.4% | SPHR +30.2% | GTN +7.2% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.3% | FLNC +59.4% | TLN -5.8% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +15.1% | MARA +36.8% | BMNR -21.6% |
| Technology | 24 | 92% | +14.1% | CIFR +59.1% | NLST -143.9% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.4% | PENN +20.7% | RRGB +6.2% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +12.2% | LAR +31.9% | USAR -0.0% |
| Healthcare | 7 | 71% | +10.6% | CUE +40.4% | SDGR -32.9% |
| Energy | 4 | 50% | +3.4% | TPL +15.6% | VNOM -9.3% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 100% | +20.8% | SRG +38.4% | SKYH +3.3% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +6.6% | NXE +18.3% | FISV -5.1% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +40.8% (2) | -1.1% (7) | +17.3% (3) | +18.9% (6) | +16.4% (6) |
| Industrials | +74.3% (1) | +35.3% (5) | +7.8% (2) | +1.6% (3) | +18.1% (2) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +7.9% (5) | +40.4% (1) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +17.2% (1) | +18.7% (2) | +7.7% (1) | +29.7% (1) |
| Energy | — | +15.6% (1) | -9.3% (1) | +0.0% (1) | +7.4% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +14.0% (1) | — | +31.9% (1) | +1.4% (2) |
| Financial Services | — | +15.3% (3) | — | — | +14.7% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.4% (3) | — | — |
| Utilities | — | +59.4% (1) | -1.7% (1) | — | -5.8% (1) |
| Unclassified | — | — | +18.3% (1) | — | -5.1% (1) |
| Real Estate | +3.3% (1) | — | +38.4% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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