This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: MARA Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-18 Checkpoint: 2026-10-18 Entry price: $11.67 Latest price: $7.53 as of 2026-10-16 Stock return since entry: -35.5% Signal return: +35.5% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated MARA a Sell because I thought the core tension was unresolved: the company had a stronger infrastructure base, but it still had not shown that this base could absorb bitcoin volatility and translate into positive cash flow. I also pointed to the TTM operating cash flow of -$834.7M and levered free cash flow of -$531.1M as evidence that the business was not yet funding itself in a way I could underwrite confidently. I said I would only get more constructive if bitcoin stayed above roughly $90,000 and operating margin turned positive, while a drop below roughly $70,000 would make the bear case more severe.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| MARA (this call) | -35.5% |
| BTDR | -32.1% |
| CLSK | -41.7% |
| HUT | -32.9% |
| IREN | -32.9% |
| RIOT | -31.1% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have earned 35.5%, so the Sell call has worked in the direction I expected. MARA has fallen materially since I published, and that lines up with my view that the stock would keep trading more on bitcoin sentiment than on durable operating progress. The peer group has also been weak, with most of the comparable miners down over the same stretch, which supports the idea that the thesis was about sector pressure as well as MARA-specific fragility. The specific concern I highlighted — that the platform was not yet converting its base into positive cash flow — has remained the right lens for the stock’s move to date.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If MARA can show sustained improvement in operating margin and a clear turn toward positive operating cash flow, that would directly challenge the core of my Sell thesis. I would also reassess if bitcoin strength holds long enough to reduce financing pressure and the company no longer needs to lean on asset sales or dilution to fund operations. A durable move back above the level I flagged around $90,000 for bitcoin would be another concrete sign that the setup is changing.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.74 | +135.2% | -135.2% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $21.66 | +22.1% | -22.1% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $169.13 | +8.2% | -8.2% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $8.39 | -6.7% | +6.7% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $350.92 | -14.0% | +14.0% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.36 | +14.3% | +14.3% | Correct so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $6.36 | -14.4% | +14.4% | Correct so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $58.83 | -15.4% | +15.4% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $205.28 | -17.1% | +17.1% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $280.16 | -28.4% | +28.4% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $220.70 | -30.9% | +30.9% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $41.82 | -31.0% | +31.0% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $67.75 | -31.1% | +31.1% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $4.72 | -39.7% | +39.7% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $191.02 | -49.8% | +49.8% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $5.83 | -33.8% | +50.7% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $8.98 | -58.9% | +58.9% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $5.80 | -59.8% | +59.8% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Financial Services
How are our Financial Services calls doing overall, and where does MARA sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| HUT | Sell | 2026-07-14 | +31.1% |
| WULF | Strong Sell | 2026-10-11 | +19.0% |
| BMNR | Sell | 2026-07-22 | -22.1% |
Across the league table, Industrials led with a 92% hit rate and +23.7% average signal return, while Communication Services was the only perfect sector with 100% and +17.4%. Our Financial Services book posted a 75% hit rate and +15.9% average signal return, with MARA +35.5% as the best call and BMNR -22.1% as the worst. At the other end, Energy lagged with a 50% hit rate and +2.5%, and Healthcare was middling at 57% and +11.0%; Utilities and Basic Materials were thin, so we do not rank them as leaders or laggards.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 13 | 92% | +23.7% | BW +74.0% | CAR -12.3% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +17.4% | SPHR +29.7% | CHTR +6.3% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.1% | FLNC +59.8% | TLN -6.9% |
| Basic Materials | 3 | 100% | +16.8% | LAR +30.9% | GFI +5.4% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +15.9% | MARA +35.5% | BMNR -22.1% |
| Technology | 24 | 92% | +15.7% | CIFR +58.9% | NLST -135.2% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.7% | PENN +19.5% | RRGB +7.4% |
| Healthcare | 7 | 57% | +11.0% | CUE +38.0% | SDGR -29.9% |
| Energy | 4 | 50% | +2.5% | TPL +14.0% | VNOM -8.0% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 100% | +18.9% | SRG +34.8% | SKYH +2.9% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +7.4% | NXE +19.5% | FISV -4.8% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +41.5% (2) | +1.0% (7) | +18.8% (3) | +20.2% (6) | +18.3% (6) |
| Industrials | +74.0% (1) | +35.1% (5) | +7.2% (2) | +2.4% (3) | +18.4% (2) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +8.8% (5) | +38.0% (1) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +17.1% (1) | +19.5% (2) | +6.3% (1) | +24.6% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +14.8% (3) | — | — | +19.0% (1) |
| Energy | — | +14.0% (1) | -8.0% (1) | -2.3% (1) | +6.4% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.7% (3) | — | — |
| Basic Materials | — | +14.3% (1) | — | +30.9% (1) | +5.4% (1) |
| Utilities | — | +59.8% (1) | -1.6% (1) | — | -6.9% (1) |
| Real Estate | +2.9% (1) | — | +34.8% (1) | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +19.5% (1) | — | -4.8% (1) |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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