This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: RDW Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-22 Checkpoint: 2026-10-22 Entry price: $8.99 Latest price: $8.56 as of 2026-10-21 Stock return since entry: -4.8% Signal return: +4.8% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Previous checkpoint: our 2-month review (2026-09-22) was incorrect (stock return +30.8% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated RDW a Sell because I thought the company’s backlog and revenue scale were not yet translating into positive operating cash flow. The specific concern I highlighted was that even with $97M of Q1 2026 revenue and $411.2M of backlog, EBITDA margin was still deeply negative and free cash flow was still negative, so the turnaround case had not yet shown up in the cash metrics.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| RDW (this call) | -4.8% |
| AVAV | -21.3% |
| KTOS | -20.0% |
| LUNR | -24.9% |
| PL | -41.4% |
| RKLB | -26.1% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my Sell would have earned 4.8%, which means the bearish call has been directionally right to date. The stock has slipped from my entry price, and that move has come alongside a peer group that has also been broadly weaker, with AVAV, KTOS, LUNR, PL, and RKLB all down over the same stretch. That does not prove the thesis by itself, but it does mean RDW has not been an outlier on the upside that would have challenged my caution. The part of my original reasoning that has held up is the idea that the market was still paying for a turnaround before the cash conversion was visible.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if Redwire starts sustaining quarterly revenue above $100M while also showing clear progress toward positive operating margin and free cash flow. I would also reassess if backlog falls materially below the level I cited or if the company needs another equity raise before cash generation turns positive, because that would change the balance of the turnaround case. If the stock reverses higher while those operating metrics improve, the Sell would no longer be the right call.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.14 | +151.6% | -151.6% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.96 | +35.1% | -35.1% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $174.05 | +11.4% | -11.4% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $6.82 | -8.2% | +8.2% | Correct so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $62.59 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $127.08 | +14.9% | +14.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $344.31 | -15.7% | +15.7% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $206.16 | -16.7% | +16.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $71.58 | -27.2% | +27.2% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $43.73 | -27.8% | +27.8% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $275.21 | -29.7% | +29.7% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $222.14 | -30.4% | +30.4% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $7.79 | -33.2% | +33.2% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $4.58 | -41.5% | +41.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $180.96 | -52.5% | +52.5% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $5.50 | -37.6% | +56.4% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $9.13 | -58.2% | +58.2% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $6.00 | -58.4% | +58.4% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Industrials
How are our Industrials calls doing overall, and where does RDW sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| BW | Sell | 2026-06-19 | +73.9% |
| SMR | Strong Sell | 2026-07-23 | +56.4% |
| MTZ | Sell | 2026-07-05 | +52.5% |
| RCAT | Sell | 2026-07-22 | +41.5% |
| MYRG | Sell | 2026-07-17 | +29.7% |
| JOBY | Sell | 2026-10-04 | +19.7% |
| FIX | Sell | 2026-10-07 | +19.5% |
| PL | Sell | 2026-09-18 | +16.5% |
We led with Industrials, where our 13 calls posted a 92% hit rate and a +24.4% average signal return, with BW the best call at +73.9% and CAR the worst at -16.1%. Communication Services was next at 100% over 5 calls and +16.4%, while Utilities and Consumer Cyclical were both thin at 3 calls, so we do not rank them as leaders or laggards despite their +16.1% and +13.1% averages. At the other end, Energy was the weakest of the non-thin sectors at +4.2%, and Technology had the largest sample at 24 calls with a 79% hit rate and +11.3%, though its worst call, NLST, was -151.6%.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 13 | 92% | +24.4% | BW +73.9% | CAR -16.1% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +16.4% | LUMN +29.7% | GTN +4.4% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +16.1% | FLNC +58.4% | TLN -8.3% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.1% | PENN +19.8% | RRGB +8.6% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +12.3% | LAR +33.3% | USAR -2.1% |
| Technology | 24 | 79% | +11.3% | CIFR +58.2% | NLST -151.6% |
| Healthcare | 7 | 71% | +8.6% | CUE +29.7% | SDGR -37.4% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +8.1% | MARA +33.2% | BMNR -35.1% |
| Energy | 4 | 75% | +4.2% | TPL +15.7% | VNOM -9.6% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 100% | +18.4% | SRG +33.4% | SKYH +3.4% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +5.9% | NXE +18.0% | FISV -6.2% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +40.9% (2) | -4.0% (7) | +17.5% (3) | +17.1% (6) | +10.3% (6) |
| Industrials | +73.9% (1) | +37.0% (5) | +6.9% (2) | +1.7% (3) | +19.6% (2) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +7.1% (5) | +29.7% (1) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +16.7% (1) | +13.5% (2) | +8.8% (1) | +29.7% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +14.9% (1) | — | +33.3% (1) | +0.5% (2) |
| Financial Services | — | +8.5% (3) | — | — | +6.8% (1) |
| Energy | — | +15.7% (1) | -9.6% (1) | +5.0% (1) | +5.9% (1) |
| Utilities | — | +58.4% (1) | -1.8% (1) | — | -8.3% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.1% (3) | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +18.0% (1) | — | -6.2% (1) |
| Real Estate | +3.4% (1) | — | +33.4% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
Leave a Comment