This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: BMNR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-22 Checkpoint: 2026-10-22 Entry price: $17.74 Latest price: $23.96 as of 2026-10-21 Stock return since entry: +35.1% Signal return: -35.1% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Previous checkpoint: our 2-month review (2026-09-22) was incorrect (stock return +62.1% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated BMNR a Sell because I thought the recent revenue jump still needed to prove it could last and translate into cash. My view was that the market was already pricing in a much stronger operating model than the cash flow statement justified, so I wanted to stay cautious until that gap narrowed.
I also said I would become more constructive only if quarterly revenue stayed above $40M for two straight quarters, EBITDA moved toward positive territory, and free cash flow turned positive. On the downside, I flagged the risk that another financing round tied to preferred stock or insider-linked debt would reinforce the dilution concern.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| BMNR (this call) | +35.1% |
| CLSK | -46.9% |
| MARA | -40.9% |
| MSTR | +45.2% |
| RIOT | -44.9% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my Sell would have lost money: BMNR rose 35.1% from my entry price, so the short signal returned -35.1%. That means the core bearish call has not been validated by price action to date.
The specific thesis point I can test here is the idea that the market was overpaying for a growth profile that had not yet proven durable. Instead of fading, the stock moved sharply higher, which tells me the market continued to reward the story rather than punish the cash-flow gap I highlighted.
The peer set was mixed, not uniformly supportive of my call: CLSK, MARA, and RIOT were down over the same stretch, while MSTR was up. BMNR’s strength relative to most of those comparables makes my caution look less persuasive in this window, because the stock did not trade like a name that was being re-rated downward for the reasons I emphasized.
The same-cohort record also leans against my call, since several other Sell ratings in the group have worked while others have not. BMNR sits with the incorrect calls, which is the right bucket for a short thesis that has moved against me.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If BMNR can keep quarterly revenue above $40M for two consecutive quarters and show EBITDA moving toward positive territory, that would directly challenge my original caution about the business not yet converting scale into operating leverage. A move to positive free cash flow would strengthen that case further.
I would also be forced to reconsider if the company continues to fund growth without leaning on dilutive preferred stock or insider-linked debt, because that would weaken the financing risk I flagged. Until then, the burden remains on the company to show that the revenue step-up is durable and cash-generative rather than temporary.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.14 | +151.6% | -151.6% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $174.05 | +11.4% | -11.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $8.56 | -4.8% | +4.8% | Correct so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $6.82 | -8.2% | +8.2% | Correct so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $62.59 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $127.08 | +14.9% | +14.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $344.31 | -15.7% | +15.7% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $206.16 | -16.7% | +16.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $71.58 | -27.2% | +27.2% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $43.73 | -27.8% | +27.8% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $275.21 | -29.7% | +29.7% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $222.14 | -30.4% | +30.4% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $7.79 | -33.2% | +33.2% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $4.58 | -41.5% | +41.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $180.96 | -52.5% | +52.5% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $5.50 | -37.6% | +56.4% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $9.13 | -58.2% | +58.2% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $6.00 | -58.4% | +58.4% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Financial Services
How are our Financial Services calls doing overall, and where does BMNR sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARA | Sell | 2026-07-18 | +33.2% |
| HUT | Sell | 2026-07-14 | +27.2% |
| WULF | Strong Sell | 2026-10-11 | +6.8% |
Across the league table, we saw Industrials lead with a 92% hit rate and +24.4% average signal return, while Communication Services was the only sector at 100% with +16.4%. Our Financial Services book posted a 75% hit rate and +8.1% average signal return, with MARA at +33.2% as the best call and BMNR at -35.1% as the worst. Thin samples were present in Utilities and Consumer Cyclical at 3 calls each, and we also note thin sectors not ranked in Real Estate and Unclassified with 2 calls each.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 13 | 92% | +24.4% | BW +73.9% | CAR -16.1% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +16.4% | LUMN +29.7% | GTN +4.4% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +16.1% | FLNC +58.4% | TLN -8.3% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.1% | PENN +19.8% | RRGB +8.6% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +12.3% | LAR +33.3% | USAR -2.1% |
| Technology | 24 | 79% | +11.3% | CIFR +58.2% | NLST -151.6% |
| Healthcare | 7 | 71% | +8.6% | CUE +29.7% | SDGR -37.4% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +8.1% | MARA +33.2% | BMNR -35.1% |
| Energy | 4 | 75% | +4.2% | TPL +15.7% | VNOM -9.6% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 100% | +18.4% | SRG +33.4% | SKYH +3.4% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +5.9% | NXE +18.0% | FISV -6.2% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +40.9% (2) | -4.0% (7) | +17.5% (3) | +17.1% (6) | +10.3% (6) |
| Industrials | +73.9% (1) | +37.0% (5) | +6.9% (2) | +1.7% (3) | +19.6% (2) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +7.1% (5) | +29.7% (1) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +16.7% (1) | +13.5% (2) | +8.8% (1) | +29.7% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +8.5% (3) | — | — | +6.8% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +14.9% (1) | — | +33.3% (1) | +0.5% (2) |
| Energy | — | +15.7% (1) | -9.6% (1) | +5.0% (1) | +5.9% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.1% (3) | — | — |
| Utilities | — | +58.4% (1) | -1.8% (1) | — | -8.3% (1) |
| Unclassified | — | — | +18.0% (1) | — | -6.2% (1) |
| Real Estate | +3.4% (1) | — | +33.4% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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