This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: BMNR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-22 Checkpoint: 2026-09-22 Entry price: $17.74 Latest price: $28.25 as of 2026-09-21 Stock return since entry: +59.2% Signal return: -59.2% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated BMNR a Sell because I thought the recent revenue jump still needed to prove it could last and translate into cash. My concern was that the market was already pricing in a much stronger operating model than the cash flow statement justified, especially with the company still relying on dilution and related-party borrowing rather than internally generated cash.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| BMNR (this call) | +59.2% |
| CLSK | -2.3% |
| MARA | +10.7% |
| MSTR | +68.5% |
| RIOT | +5.8% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell would have lost money: the stock is up sharply from my entry, so the short signal has been wrong to date. That means my core thesis has not been validated yet — the market has continued to reward the growth story instead of punishing the gap between reported revenue and cash generation. The peer group has been mixed, with some names lower and several higher, but BMNR has clearly moved in the same risk-on direction as the stronger performers rather than breaking down the way my thesis expected. I also have not seen evidence in the numbers I was focused on — sustained revenue above $40M, positive EBITDA margin, or free cash flow turning positive — that would have supported a more constructive view.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If BMNR can keep quarterly revenue above $40M for a second straight quarter and move EBITDA toward positive territory, that would directly challenge my original caution. I would also have to reconsider if free cash flow turns positive while the current ratio stays above 10x, because that would show the business is funding growth internally instead of leaning on external capital. On the other hand, if revenue slips back below $10M or operating cash flow stays deeply negative, that would reinforce the bearish case I originally laid out.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.10 | +109.0% | -109.0% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.60 | +29.0% | -29.0% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.96 | +20.6% | -20.6% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $13.28 | +13.8% | -13.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $175.23 | +12.1% | -12.1% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $76.38 | +9.8% | -9.8% | Incorrect so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $103.42 | +5.2% | -5.2% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.79 | -0.2% | +0.3% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $68.85 | -5.6% | +5.6% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $366.80 | -10.2% | +10.2% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $6.95 | -11.2% | +11.2% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $18.90 | -13.5% | +13.5% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $275.98 | -13.6% | +13.6% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $52.19 | -13.9% | +13.9% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $209.92 | -15.2% | +15.2% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $129.10 | +16.7% | +16.7% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $288.45 | -26.3% | +26.3% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $222.90 | -41.4% | +41.4% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.39 | -48.8% | +48.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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