This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: JOBY Rating: Sell Published: 2026-10-04 Checkpoint: 2026-11-04 Entry price: $5.78 Latest price: $4.85 as of 2026-11-03 Stock return since entry: -16.1% Signal return: +16.1% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that JOBY was already priced for commercialization before the business had earned it, with valuation at 37.6x EV/Revenue and 51.0x price/sales doing a lot of the work in the stock. I also pointed to the $2.3B cash balance as runway rather than proof of profitability, while the -$609.9M TTM operating cash flow showed the company was still burning that runway. My view was that I would only move closer to hold if quarterly revenue stayed above $35M and EBITDA losses narrowed materially.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| JOBY (this call) | -16.1% |
| ACHR | -12.5% |
| AVAV | -11.3% |
| EH | -5.2% |
| KTOS | -2.5% |
| UBER | -4.1% |
How Other Analysts Rate It
Every Wall Street rating action logged on Yahoo Finance since our Sell on 2026-10-05, one row per action (a firm that updates three times appears three times). LF0 rows are in bold.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Action | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | Original call at $5.78 | |
| 2026-10-09 | Barclays | Underweight | Equal-Weight to Underweight (downgrade) | $4.00 (from $6.00) |
| 2026-10-19 | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Reiterated | $10.00 (from $13.00) |
| 2026-11-04 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | 1-month update (this report) |
Since our Sell on 2026-10-05, 1 rating change were logged by Yahoo Finance: 1 moved toward our view (Barclays (Equal-Weight to Underweight, 2026-10-09)). The Street has largely drifted toward our call.
Counting each firm’s latest action in this window: 0 bullish, 1 neutral, 1 bearish out of 2 firms.
Source: Yahoo Finance analyst rating actions. Dates are when Yahoo logged the action. Analyst ratings are third-party opinions, not LF0 views or recommendations.
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have earned 16.1%, which means the sell call has worked to date. The stock has moved lower while the peer group has also been mostly down, but JOBY’s decline still fits the original thesis that the valuation was ahead of the commercial ramp. The key part of my reasoning that has held up is that the balance sheet alone did not prevent the shares from repricing lower once the market continued to question whether certification, utilization, and manufacturing execution would line up quickly enough. The move has also kept the original cash-burn concern relevant: runway matters, but it is not the same as profitability.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If JOBY can keep quarterly revenue above $35M for multiple quarters and show a clear narrowing in EBITDA losses, that would directly challenge my original call. I would also reconsider if operating cash burn falls meaningfully from the -$609.9M TTM pace, because that would show the runway is being preserved rather than consumed. A sustained improvement in those operating metrics, alongside evidence that commercialization is becoming repeatable rather than episodic, would be the clearest path to overturning this view.
The October 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISV | Sell | $45.38 | $58.40 | +28.7% | -28.7% | Incorrect so far |
| ENPH | Strong Sell | $27.93 | $30.42 | +8.9% | -13.4% | Incorrect so far |
| SM | Buy | $40.38 | $36.67 | -9.2% | -9.2% | Incorrect so far |
| TLN | Sell | $331.87 | $357.28 | +7.7% | -7.7% | Incorrect so far |
| GFI | Buy | $35.69 | $34.56 | -3.2% | -3.2% | Incorrect so far |
| CRSP | Strong Sell | $49.01 | $49.99 | +2.0% | -3.0% | Incorrect so far |
| STRC | Strong Sell | $98.92 | $99.93 | +1.0% | -1.5% | Incorrect so far |
| TPL | Strong Sell | $330.43 | $332.00 | +0.5% | -0.7% | Incorrect so far |
| LUNR | Strong Sell | $10.52 | $10.48 | -0.4% | +0.6% | Correct so far |
| EVH | Strong Sell | $4.42 | $4.30 | -2.7% | +4.1% | Correct so far |
| VKTX | Strong Sell | $26.86 | $26.09 | -2.9% | +4.3% | Correct so far |
| WULF | Strong Sell | $13.37 | $12.53 | -6.3% | +9.4% | Correct so far |
| MSTR | Sell | $160.50 | $135.63 | -15.5% | +15.5% | Correct so far |
| CCJ | Sell | $87.12 | $72.56 | -16.7% | +16.7% | Correct so far |
| USAR | Strong Sell | $10.09 | $8.71 | -13.7% | +20.5% | Correct so far |
| LUMN | Strong Sell | $5.56 | $4.75 | -14.6% | +21.9% | Correct so far |
| FIX | Sell | $1,741.36 | $1,285.13 | -26.2% | +26.2% | Correct so far |
| UMAC | Strong Sell | $17.73 | $14.62 | -17.5% | +26.3% | Correct so far |
| NVTS | Sell | $12.34 | $8.56 | -30.6% | +30.6% | Correct so far |
| SMTC | Strong Sell | $172.78 | $127.42 | -26.3% | +39.4% | Correct so far |
| INOD | Strong Sell | $59.91 | $41.90 | -30.1% | +45.1% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Industrials
How are our Industrials calls doing overall, and where does JOBY sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| BW | Sell | 2026-06-19 | +76.2% |
| SMR | Strong Sell | 2026-07-23 | +58.6% |
| MTZ | Sell | 2026-07-05 | +48.0% |
| RCAT | Sell | 2026-07-22 | +43.0% |
| FIX | Sell | 2026-10-07 | +26.2% |
| MYRG | Sell | 2026-07-17 | +25.5% |
| PL | Sell | 2026-09-18 | +17.7% |
| BA | Sell | 2026-08-24 | +17.7% |
We saw Industrials lead the league table with 14 calls, an 86% hit rate, and a +23.6% average signal return, while Technology was close behind at 25 calls, 84%, and +19.2%. The best call in the set was BW at +76.2%, and the worst was NLST at -154.5%. Communication Services and Consumer Cyclical both posted 100% hit rates, but with only 5 and 3 calls respectively, while thin sectors like Real Estate and Unclassified were not ranked. At the other end, Healthcare lagged with an 11-call, 55% hit-rate book and a +3.1% average signal return.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 14 | 86% | +23.6% | BW +76.2% | CAR -6.8% |
| Technology | 25 | 84% | +19.2% | CIFR +62.8% | NLST -154.5% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.2% | FLNC +61.9% | TLN -7.7% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +16.9% | MARA +38.6% | BMNR -15.7% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +16.2% | LAR +40.1% | GFI -3.2% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +15.6% | SPHR +28.7% | GTN +2.9% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +12.5% | OI +24.6% | RRGB +4.7% |
| Energy | 6 | 50% | +7.0% | BORR +22.1% | SM -9.2% |
| Healthcare | 11 | 55% | +3.1% | STXS +39.4% | SDGR -56.2% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +11.2% | SRG +29.9% | SKYH -7.5% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | -2.6% | NXE +23.5% | FISV -28.7% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +43.7% (2) | +0.9% (7) | +28.4% (3) | +26.6% (6) | +20.3% (7) | — |
| Industrials | +76.2% (1) | +37.0% (5) | +5.6% (2) | +5.3% (3) | +14.3% (3) | — |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +3.5% (5) | +22.6% (1) | +1.8% (3) | -6.4% (1) |
| Energy | — | +19.1% (1) | -6.0% (1) | +22.1% (1) | +2.3% (3) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +21.3% (1) | +15.8% (2) | +3.2% (1) | +21.9% (1) | — |
| Basic Materials | — | +7.3% (1) | — | +40.1% (1) | +8.7% (2) | — |
| Financial Services | — | +19.4% (3) | — | — | +9.4% (1) | — |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +12.5% (3) | — | — | — |
| Utilities | — | +61.9% (1) | -2.6% (1) | — | -7.7% (1) | — |
| Real Estate | -7.5% (1) | — | +29.9% (1) | — | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +23.5% (1) | — | -28.7% (1) | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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