This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: GFI Rating: Buy Published: 2026-10-03 Checkpoint: 2026-11-03 Entry price: $35.69 Latest price: $34.77 as of 2026-11-02 Stock return since entry: -2.6% Signal return: -2.6% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated GFI a Buy because I thought the cash-generation profile was unusually strong: a 13.2% FCF yield, 36.7% FCF margin, and 0.1x net debt/EBITDA suggested a business with real balance-sheet support. My main caution was valuation discipline, since the stock was already at 7.1x forward P/E and 11.6x PEG, so I wanted to see cash flow stay above $4B and earnings growth hold up before getting more aggressive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| GFI (this call) | -2.6% |
| AEM | -8.3% |
| AG | -18.4% |
| CDE | -21.6% |
| NEM | -7.0% |
| PAAS | -15.1% |
How Other Analysts Rate It
Every Wall Street rating action logged on Yahoo Finance since our Buy on 2026-10-05, one row per action (a firm that updates three times appears three times). LF0 rows are in bold.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Action | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | LF0 Equity Research | Buy | Original call at $35.69 | |
| 2026-10-15 | Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Initiated coverage | $38.00 |
| 2026-11-03 | LF0 Equity Research | Buy | 1-month update (this report) |
No analyst changed their rating on this stock since our Buy on 2026-10-05; the table shows reiterations and price-target changes only.
Counting each firm’s latest action in this window: 0 bullish, 1 neutral, 0 bearish out of 1 firms.
Yahoo’s consensus tally today: 5 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell; three months ago: 6 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell.
Source: Yahoo Finance analyst rating actions. Dates are when Yahoo logged the action. Analyst ratings are third-party opinions, not LF0 views or recommendations.
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my Buy would have lost 2.6%, so the call has not worked to date. The stock has slipped while the peer group has also been broadly weaker, which means GFI has not shown the kind of relative strength I was looking for from a name with this cash profile. The specific part of my thesis that has not been validated is the idea that the market would quickly re-rate the shares on the back of the 13.2% FCF yield and 36.7% FCF margin; instead, that support has not translated into a positive return. The valuation concern I flagged remains relevant because the stock has not moved toward the higher-price setup I described around the 200-day moving average and analyst target.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If GFI can re-establish sustained strength above the levels I highlighted in the original note, that would help repair the call. More importantly, if free cash flow stays above $4B and earnings growth remains strong enough to support the current multiple, I would have a better case that the market is still underpricing the business. If those conditions fail and cash conversion weakens materially, my Buy would remain the wrong call.
The October 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISV | Sell | $45.38 | $51.93 | +14.4% | -14.4% | Incorrect so far |
| SM | Buy | $40.38 | $37.44 | -7.3% | -7.3% | Incorrect so far |
| CRSP | Strong Sell | $49.01 | $49.99 | +2.0% | -3.0% | Incorrect so far |
| EVH | Strong Sell | $4.42 | $4.45 | +0.7% | -1.0% | Incorrect so far |
| STRC | Strong Sell | $98.92 | $99.28 | +0.4% | -0.5% | Incorrect so far |
| TLN | Sell | $331.87 | $332.99 | +0.3% | -0.3% | Incorrect so far |
| ENPH | Strong Sell | $27.93 | $27.93 | +0.0% | -0.0% | Incorrect so far |
| VKTX | Strong Sell | $26.86 | $26.83 | -0.1% | +0.2% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Strong Sell | $330.43 | $329.95 | -0.1% | +0.2% | Correct so far |
| LUNR | Strong Sell | $10.52 | $9.86 | -6.3% | +9.4% | Correct so far |
| CCJ | Sell | $87.12 | $73.38 | -15.8% | +15.8% | Correct so far |
| JOBY | Sell | $5.78 | $4.81 | -16.8% | +16.8% | Correct so far |
| USAR | Strong Sell | $10.09 | $8.85 | -12.2% | +18.4% | Correct so far |
| MSTR | Sell | $160.50 | $130.76 | -18.5% | +18.5% | Correct so far |
| LUMN | Strong Sell | $5.56 | $4.83 | -13.1% | +19.7% | Correct so far |
| WULF | Strong Sell | $13.37 | $10.94 | -18.2% | +27.3% | Correct so far |
| UMAC | Strong Sell | $17.73 | $14.27 | -19.5% | +29.3% | Correct so far |
| FIX | Sell | $1,741.36 | $1,200.14 | -31.1% | +31.1% | Correct so far |
| NVTS | Sell | $12.34 | $7.93 | -35.7% | +35.7% | Correct so far |
| SMTC | Strong Sell | $172.78 | $122.38 | -29.2% | +43.8% | Correct so far |
| INOD | Strong Sell | $59.91 | $41.32 | -31.0% | +46.5% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Basic Materials
How are our Basic Materials calls doing overall, and where does GFI sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | Sell | 2026-09-06 | +39.1% |
| USAR | Strong Sell | 2026-10-18 | +18.4% |
| UAN | Buy | 2026-07-15 | +12.8% |
Across the league table, Industrials led with a 86% hit rate and +25.8% average signal return, followed by Technology at 84% and +21.4%, while Financial Services also stood out at 75% and +26.5%. Basic Materials posted a 75% hit rate and +16.9% average signal return on 4 calls, with LAR +39.1% as the best call and GFI -2.6% as the worst. At the other end, Healthcare lagged at 45% and +4.3%, and Utilities was thin with 3 calls, so we do not rank it as a leader or laggard despite its 33% hit rate and +20.3% average signal return. Thin sectors not ranked also include Real Estate and Unclassified, each with 2 calls.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +26.5% | MARA +44.9% | BMNR -10.1% |
| Industrials | 14 | 86% | +25.8% | BW +77.1% | LHX -6.9% |
| Technology | 25 | 84% | +21.4% | CIFR +68.6% | NLST -159.8% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +20.3% | FLNC +63.9% | AES -2.5% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +16.9% | LAR +39.1% | GFI -2.6% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +15.3% | SPHR +28.7% | CHTR +1.7% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +11.9% | OI +23.4% | RRGB +3.9% |
| Energy | 6 | 67% | +5.9% | TPL +19.1% | VNOM -9.7% |
| Healthcare | 11 | 45% | +4.3% | STXS +36.7% | SDGR -50.5% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +11.6% | SRG +31.3% | SKYH -8.1% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +4.9% | NXE +24.1% | FISV -14.4% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +49.8% (2) | +2.2% (7) | +23.7% (3) | +29.2% (6) | +24.8% (7) | — |
| Industrials | +77.1% (1) | +38.6% (5) | +4.9% (2) | +8.1% (3) | +19.1% (3) | — |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +5.7% (5) | +28.0% (1) | -1.3% (3) | +0.0% (1) |
| Energy | — | +19.1% (1) | -9.7% (1) | +17.1% (1) | +2.9% (3) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +22.4% (1) | +16.2% (2) | +1.7% (1) | +19.7% (1) | — |
| Financial Services | — | +26.3% (3) | — | — | +27.3% (1) | — |
| Basic Materials | — | +12.8% (1) | — | +39.1% (1) | +7.9% (2) | — |
| Utilities | — | +63.9% (1) | -2.5% (1) | — | -0.3% (1) | — |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +11.9% (3) | — | — | — |
| Real Estate | -8.1% (1) | — | +31.3% (1) | — | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +24.1% (1) | — | -14.4% (1) | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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