This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: NVTS Rating: Sell Published: 2026-10-03 Checkpoint: 2026-11-03 Entry price: $12.34 Latest price: $7.93 as of 2026-11-02 Stock return since entry: -35.7% Signal return: +35.7% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated NVTS a Sell because I thought the stock was already pricing in a turnaround that the reported numbers had not yet earned. My core concerns were the rich valuation, the still-negative operating cash flow, and the idea that the cash balance mainly bought time rather than proving the pivot was working. I also said I would become more constructive only if quarterly revenue stayed above $10.5M and margins improved.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| NVTS (this call) | -35.7% |
| DIOD | -23.0% |
| MTSI | -32.3% |
| NXPI | +6.3% |
| ON | -18.4% |
| STM | -18.2% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my Sell call would have earned 35.7%, which means the bearish signal has worked to date. The stock has fallen sharply from my entry price, and that move is consistent with my view that the market was paying for a successful pivot before the evidence was there. The peer group has been mixed to lower overall, with several comparable names also down, but NVTS has still moved in the direction that supported my thesis. The specific concern I highlighted — that the valuation was rich relative to a business still burning cash — has not been challenged by the price action; instead, the market has repriced the story lower.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If NVTS can hold quarterly revenue above $10.5M for several quarters and show clear margin improvement, that would directly weaken the part of my thesis that the turnaround was not yet visible in the numbers. I would also be wrong if operating cash flow stops being meaningfully negative and the company starts showing a credible path toward self-funding growth. A sustained re-rating higher from here, especially alongside improving execution rather than just a one-quarter bounce, would also argue against my Sell call.
The October 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISV | Sell | $45.38 | $51.93 | +14.4% | -14.4% | Incorrect so far |
| SM | Buy | $40.38 | $37.44 | -7.3% | -7.3% | Incorrect so far |
| CRSP | Strong Sell | $49.01 | $49.99 | +2.0% | -3.0% | Incorrect so far |
| GFI | Buy | $35.69 | $34.77 | -2.6% | -2.6% | Incorrect so far |
| EVH | Strong Sell | $4.42 | $4.45 | +0.7% | -1.0% | Incorrect so far |
| STRC | Strong Sell | $98.92 | $99.28 | +0.4% | -0.5% | Incorrect so far |
| TLN | Sell | $331.87 | $332.99 | +0.3% | -0.3% | Incorrect so far |
| ENPH | Strong Sell | $27.93 | $27.93 | +0.0% | -0.0% | Incorrect so far |
| VKTX | Strong Sell | $26.86 | $26.83 | -0.1% | +0.2% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Strong Sell | $330.43 | $329.95 | -0.1% | +0.2% | Correct so far |
| LUNR | Strong Sell | $10.52 | $9.86 | -6.3% | +9.4% | Correct so far |
| CCJ | Sell | $87.12 | $73.38 | -15.8% | +15.8% | Correct so far |
| JOBY | Sell | $5.78 | $4.81 | -16.8% | +16.8% | Correct so far |
| USAR | Strong Sell | $10.09 | $8.85 | -12.2% | +18.4% | Correct so far |
| MSTR | Sell | $160.50 | $130.76 | -18.5% | +18.5% | Correct so far |
| LUMN | Strong Sell | $5.56 | $4.83 | -13.1% | +19.7% | Correct so far |
| WULF | Strong Sell | $13.37 | $10.94 | -18.2% | +27.3% | Correct so far |
| UMAC | Strong Sell | $17.73 | $14.27 | -19.5% | +29.3% | Correct so far |
| FIX | Sell | $1,741.36 | $1,200.14 | -31.1% | +31.1% | Correct so far |
| SMTC | Strong Sell | $172.78 | $122.38 | -29.2% | +43.8% | Correct so far |
| INOD | Strong Sell | $59.91 | $41.32 | -31.0% | +46.5% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Technology
How are our Technology calls doing overall, and where does NVTS sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Sell | 2026-07-08 | +68.6% |
| AEHR | Sell | 2026-06-18 | +55.4% |
| INOD | Strong Sell | 2026-10-10 | +46.5% |
| SOUN | Sell | 2026-06-14 | +44.2% |
| SMTC | Strong Sell | 2026-10-13 | +43.8% |
| ONTO | Sell | 2026-07-14 | +40.1% |
| AMKR | Sell | 2026-07-27 | +39.0% |
| ICHR | Sell | 2026-09-27 | +38.0% |
Across sectors, Industrials led our directional calls with an 86% hit rate and a +25.8% average signal return, while Technology was close behind at 84% and +21.4% across 25 calls. Financial Services also performed well at 75% and +26.5%, and Communication Services and Consumer Cyclical both posted 100% hit rates, though Consumer Cyclical is thin with 3 calls and Communication Services had 5 calls. The weakest hit rate was Utilities at 33%, while Healthcare lagged on hit rate at 45% despite a +4.3% average signal return; our best single call was BW at +77.1% in Industrials and the worst was NLST at -159.8% in Technology.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +26.5% | MARA +44.9% | BMNR -10.1% |
| Industrials | 14 | 86% | +25.8% | BW +77.1% | LHX -6.9% |
| Technology | 25 | 84% | +21.4% | CIFR +68.6% | NLST -159.8% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +20.3% | FLNC +63.9% | AES -2.5% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +16.9% | LAR +39.1% | GFI -2.6% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +15.3% | SPHR +28.7% | CHTR +1.7% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +11.9% | OI +23.4% | RRGB +3.9% |
| Energy | 6 | 67% | +5.9% | TPL +19.1% | VNOM -9.7% |
| Healthcare | 11 | 45% | +4.3% | STXS +36.7% | SDGR -50.5% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +11.6% | SRG +31.3% | SKYH -8.1% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +4.9% | NXE +24.1% | FISV -14.4% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +49.8% (2) | +2.2% (7) | +23.7% (3) | +29.2% (6) | +24.8% (7) | — |
| Industrials | +77.1% (1) | +38.6% (5) | +4.9% (2) | +8.1% (3) | +19.1% (3) | — |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +5.7% (5) | +28.0% (1) | -1.3% (3) | +0.0% (1) |
| Energy | — | +19.1% (1) | -9.7% (1) | +17.1% (1) | +2.9% (3) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +22.4% (1) | +16.2% (2) | +1.7% (1) | +19.7% (1) | — |
| Basic Materials | — | +12.8% (1) | — | +39.1% (1) | +7.9% (2) | — |
| Financial Services | — | +26.3% (3) | — | — | +27.3% (1) | — |
| Utilities | — | +63.9% (1) | -2.5% (1) | — | -0.3% (1) | — |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +11.9% (3) | — | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +24.1% (1) | — | -14.4% (1) | — |
| Real Estate | -8.1% (1) | — | +31.3% (1) | — | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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