This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: TTWO Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-28 Checkpoint: 2026-10-28 Entry price: $247.62 Latest price: $201.28 as of 2026-10-27 Stock return since entry: -18.7% Signal return: +18.7% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Previous checkpoint: our 2-month review (2026-09-28) was correct (stock return -18.3% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated TTWO a Sell because I thought the stock was already pricing in a successful Grand Theft Auto VI cycle while the reported business still showed only 2.3% operating margin, 11.8% EBITDA margin, and negative net income. My view was that the franchise is valuable and the balance sheet is fine, but the valuation was asking investors to trust a margin step-up that had not yet appeared in the run rate.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| TTWO (this call) | -18.7% |
| EA | +0.0% |
| NTES | -11.5% |
| OTGLY | +8.2% |
| TCEHY | -14.6% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my Sell would have earned 18.7%, which means the short case has worked in the direction I expected. TTWO has fallen from my entry price, and that move lines up with my original concern that the market was paying for a GTA VI outcome before the margin improvement showed up. The peer set has been mixed, with some comparables flat or higher and others lower, so TTWO’s decline was not just a broad group move; it still stands out as a stock that moved in the direction my thesis anticipated. The specific point I emphasized most — that the stock was asking for proof of a margin step-up rather than just the promise of one — has held up through this review.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If TTWO starts showing the margin expansion I wanted to see, especially operating margin moving into the high single digits and EBITDA stepping materially higher around the GTA VI launch, that would weaken my bearish case. A delayed release would not by itself prove me wrong if the business still fails to convert the launch into a stronger earnings base. What would change my view is evidence that the company can sustain materially better profitability rather than just trade on anticipation.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.62 | +171.3% | -171.3% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $21.62 | +21.9% | -21.9% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $185.00 | +18.4% | -18.4% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $70.30 | +1.1% | -1.1% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $8.89 | -1.1% | +1.1% | Correct so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $6.87 | -7.5% | +7.5% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $123.76 | +11.9% | +11.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $330.43 | -19.1% | +19.1% | Correct (final) |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $67.34 | -31.5% | +31.5% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $266.64 | -31.9% | +31.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $214.17 | -32.9% | +32.9% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $39.94 | -34.1% | +34.1% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $4.87 | -37.8% | +37.8% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $7.09 | -39.2% | +39.2% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $5.70 | -35.3% | +53.0% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $176.50 | -53.6% | +53.6% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $6.01 | -58.3% | +58.3% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $8.48 | -61.2% | +61.2% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Communication Services
How are our Communication Services calls doing overall, and where does TTWO sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| LUMN | Strong Sell | 2026-10-08 | +23.5% |
| SPHR | Sell | 2026-08-27 | +22.1% |
| GTN | Sell | 2026-08-20 | +11.0% |
| CHTR | Sell | 2026-09-24 | +10.7% |
Across sectors, Industrials led the league table with 14 calls, an 86% hit rate, and a +22.0% average signal return, while Communication Services was also strong with 5 calls, a 100% hit rate, and a +17.2% average signal return. The weakest cumulative result among the ranked sectors was Energy, with 5 calls, a 60% hit rate, and a +4.2% average signal return; Healthcare also lagged at 56% and +5.5%. Thin samples were present in Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, Basic Materials, and Financial Services, so we treat those results cautiously. The best call was BW +74.4% in Industrials, and the worst was NLST -171.3% in Technology.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 14 | 86% | +22.0% | BW +74.4% | LUNR -14.8% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.3% | FLNC +58.3% | TLN -4.2% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +17.2% | LUMN +23.5% | CHTR +10.7% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +14.2% | MARA +39.2% | BMNR -21.9% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.1% | PENN +20.1% | OI +5.3% |
| Technology | 24 | 75% | +12.2% | CIFR +61.2% | NLST -171.3% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +9.8% | LAR +31.6% | USAR -4.6% |
| Healthcare | 9 | 56% | +5.5% | CUE +32.0% | SDGR -53.6% |
| Energy | 5 | 60% | +4.2% | TPL +19.1% | VNOM -11.5% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +12.6% | SRG +29.9% | SKYH -4.6% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +5.5% | NXE +15.4% | FISV -4.5% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +42.5% (2) | -7.9% (7) | +18.2% (3) | +18.8% (6) | +16.1% (6) |
| Industrials | +74.4% (1) | +35.5% (5) | +10.3% (2) | +3.8% (3) | +8.2% (3) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +6.0% (5) | +32.0% (1) | -3.8% (2) |
| Communication Services | — | +18.7% (1) | +16.6% (2) | +10.7% (1) | +23.5% (1) |
| Energy | — | +19.1% (1) | -11.5% (1) | +7.9% (1) | +2.7% (2) |
| Basic Materials | — | +11.9% (1) | — | +31.6% (1) | -2.2% (2) |
| Financial Services | — | +16.3% (3) | — | — | +8.0% (1) |
| Utilities | — | +58.3% (1) | -2.2% (1) | — | -4.2% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.1% (3) | — | — |
| Real Estate | -4.6% (1) | — | +29.9% (1) | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +15.4% (1) | — | -4.5% (1) |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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