This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: NXE Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-28 Checkpoint: 2026-10-28 Entry price: $10.40 Latest price: $8.80 as of 2026-10-27 Stock return since entry: -15.4% Signal return: +15.4% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Previous checkpoint: our 1-month review (2026-09-28) was correct (stock return -13.6% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated NXE a Sell because I thought the company was still funding growth ahead of durable cash generation, even though it had a large cash balance and a 1.5x current ratio. My core concern was the cash conversion gap: operating cash flow was still negative and levered free cash flow was deeply negative, while the valuation still looked expensive on book value and EBITDA. I said I would only turn more constructive if free cash flow turned positive and stayed there.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| NXE (this call) | -15.4% |
| DNN | -30.4% |
| SHEL | +16.2% |
| UEC | -34.6% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
That call has worked over this tracking window: if I had shorted NXE at my entry price, I would be up 15.4% to date. The stock has moved lower while the peer set has been mixed, with DNN and UEC also down but SHEL higher, which is consistent with my view that NXE was vulnerable on its own cash profile rather than simply moving with the group. The specific thesis point that mattered most was the lack of self-funding, and the price action has not challenged that concern. The result also fits my conclusion that the market was paying for a future that was not yet visible in the financial statements.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if NXE shows that levered free cash flow has turned positive and can hold that level for two consecutive quarters, because that would directly address the cash-conversion problem behind my Sell rating. I would also reconsider if operating cash flow stays positive while the company continues to sustain the Q2 2026 EBITDA improvement, since that would suggest the business is becoming self-funding rather than relying on outside capital. If those conditions fail and cash generation slips back negative, my original thesis remains intact.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $26.72 | +53.6% | -53.6% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $46.44 | +11.5% | -11.5% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $15.03 | +2.2% | -2.2% | Incorrect so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $259.40 | -0.6% | +0.6% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $6.43 | -5.3% | +5.3% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $208.25 | +10.5% | +10.5% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.30 | -11.0% | +11.0% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $6.88 | -11.3% | +11.3% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.43 | -13.3% | +13.3% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $8.19 | -13.9% | +13.9% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $62.74 | -19.4% | +19.4% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $168.18 | -20.1% | +20.1% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $14.83 | -20.1% | +20.1% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $114.73 | -22.1% | +22.1% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.03 | -25.9% | +25.9% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.19 | -27.9% | +27.9% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.69 | -19.9% | +29.9% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $240.85 | -29.9% | +29.9% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Unclassified
How are our Unclassified calls doing overall, and where does NXE sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| FISV | Sell | 2026-10-01 | -4.5% |
We did not have a target month, so on the cumulative league table Industrials led with 14 calls, an 86% hit rate, and a +22.0% average signal return, while Technology was the largest book at 24 calls with a 75% hit rate and a +12.2% average signal return. Communication Services was perfect at 100% on 5 calls with a +17.2% average signal return, and Consumer Cyclical was also 100% on 3 calls with a +13.1% average signal return, while Utilities was thin at 3 calls and posted a 33% hit rate with a +17.3% average signal return. The weakest cumulative average signal return was Healthcare at +5.5% on 9 calls, and the worst single call shown was Technology’s NLST at -171.3%, while the best was Industrials’ BW at +74.4%.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 14 | 86% | +22.0% | BW +74.4% | LUNR -14.8% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.3% | FLNC +58.3% | TLN -4.2% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +17.2% | LUMN +23.5% | CHTR +10.7% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +14.2% | MARA +39.2% | BMNR -21.9% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.1% | PENN +20.1% | OI +5.3% |
| Technology | 24 | 75% | +12.2% | CIFR +61.2% | NLST -171.3% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +9.8% | LAR +31.6% | USAR -4.6% |
| Healthcare | 9 | 56% | +5.5% | CUE +32.0% | SDGR -53.6% |
| Energy | 5 | 60% | +4.2% | TPL +19.1% | VNOM -11.5% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +12.6% | SRG +29.9% | SKYH -4.6% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +5.5% | NXE +15.4% | FISV -4.5% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +42.5% (2) | -7.9% (7) | +18.2% (3) | +18.8% (6) | +16.1% (6) |
| Industrials | +74.4% (1) | +35.5% (5) | +10.3% (2) | +3.8% (3) | +8.2% (3) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +6.0% (5) | +32.0% (1) | -3.8% (2) |
| Energy | — | +19.1% (1) | -11.5% (1) | +7.9% (1) | +2.7% (2) |
| Communication Services | — | +18.7% (1) | +16.6% (2) | +10.7% (1) | +23.5% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +16.3% (3) | — | — | +8.0% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +11.9% (1) | — | +31.6% (1) | -2.2% (2) |
| Utilities | — | +58.3% (1) | -2.2% (1) | — | -4.2% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.1% (3) | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +15.4% (1) | — | -4.5% (1) |
| Real Estate | -4.6% (1) | — | +29.9% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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