This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: ICHR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-09-27 Checkpoint: 2026-10-27 Entry price: $59.42 Latest price: $38.06 as of 2026-10-26 Stock return since entry: -35.9% Signal return: +35.9% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated ICHR a sell because I thought the recovery was real but already reflected in the stock, especially with shares trading at 2.0x EV/revenue and 17.7x forward P/E. My concern was that the business still had weak cash conversion, with TTM FCF yield at just 0.5%, even though Q2 2026 revenue reached $294.8M and net income turned positive at $1M.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| ICHR (this call) | -35.9% |
| AMAT | -19.8% |
| KLAC | -20.1% |
| LRCX | -24.5% |
| TER | -20.4% |
| UCTT | -37.2% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following my sell call would have earned 35.9%, which means the short side has worked clearly to date. The stock’s drop has validated my core point that the valuation was too rich for the cash flow profile I highlighted, and the market has not rewarded the recovery story I described. The peer group has also moved lower overall, so ICHR has not been an isolated case, but the size of the decline still supports the idea that the setup was vulnerable. The specific weakness I flagged — 0.5% FCF yield — remains the key part of the thesis that the price action has not challenged.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if ICHR starts sustaining operating margin above the positive level I cited and FCF yield moves above 2.0%, because that would show the recovery is turning into real cash generation. I would also reconsider the call if revenue slips back below the recent $240M range I pointed to, since that would weaken the recovery case I was leaning against. A durable rerating would be more credible if the company can keep improving cash conversion without leaning on dilution or other balance-sheet support.
The September 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Buy | $117.26 | $101.86 | -13.1% | -13.1% | Incorrect so far |
| ASX | Sell | $41.63 | $39.91 | -4.1% | +4.1% | Correct so far |
| BORR | Sell | $4.44 | $3.96 | -10.8% | +10.8% | Correct so far |
| CHTR | Sell | $117.55 | $102.18 | -13.1% | +13.1% | Correct so far |
| ATI | Sell | $189.65 | $164.54 | -13.2% | +13.2% | Correct so far |
| PL | Sell | $16.42 | $13.76 | -16.2% | +16.2% | Correct so far |
| RXT | Sell | $3.49 | $2.71 | -22.3% | +22.3% | Correct so far |
| ALAB | Sell | $351.31 | $259.51 | -26.1% | +26.1% | Correct so far |
| DOCN | Sell | $136.29 | $99.53 | -27.0% | +27.0% | Correct so far |
| SIMO | Sell | $269.00 | $189.18 | -29.7% | +29.7% | Correct so far |
| CUE | Sell | $26.96 | $18.45 | -31.6% | +31.6% | Correct so far |
| LAR | Sell | $6.70 | $4.17 | -37.8% | +37.8% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Technology
How are our Technology calls doing overall, and where does ICHR sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Sell | 2026-07-08 | +64.7% |
| AEHR | Sell | 2026-06-18 | +50.9% |
| SOUN | Sell | 2026-06-14 | +42.2% |
| AMKR | Sell | 2026-07-27 | +39.3% |
| ONTO | Sell | 2026-07-14 | +36.3% |
| NVTS | Sell | 2026-10-03 | +31.9% |
| SMTC | Strong Sell | 2026-10-13 | +31.3% |
| LRCX | Sell | 2026-08-16 | +30.9% |
Across sectors, Industrials led the league table with a 93% hit rate and +25.1% average signal return, while Communication Services also stood out at 100% hits and +19.2%. Technology, our focus sector, finished in the upper half with 24 calls, an 83% hit rate, and a +15.1% average signal return, with CIFR +64.7% as the best call and NLST -163.9% as the worst. At the other end, Healthcare lagged at a 62% hit rate and +9.7%, and Utilities was the weakest on hit rate at 33% despite a +19.3% average signal return. Thin samples in Utilities, Financial Services, Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, and Unclassified mean those results should be read cautiously.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 14 | 93% | +25.1% | BW +76.5% | CAR -13.1% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +19.3% | FLNC +61.9% | AES -2.2% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +19.2% | LUMN +30.5% | GTN +9.5% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +18.7% | MARA +41.4% | BMNR -18.1% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +16.6% | LAR +37.8% | GFI -1.4% |
| Technology | 24 | 83% | +15.1% | CIFR +64.7% | NLST -163.9% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +12.9% | PENN +19.7% | OI +5.2% |
| Healthcare | 8 | 62% | +9.7% | CUE +31.6% | SDGR -40.8% |
| Energy | 4 | 75% | +6.3% | TPL +18.3% | VNOM -13.2% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +15.6% | SRG +32.7% | SKYH -1.6% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +6.7% | NXE +19.9% | FISV -6.5% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +46.5% (2) | -3.3% (7) | +20.5% (3) | +24.2% (6) | +14.2% (6) |
| Industrials | +76.5% (1) | +39.9% (5) | +5.4% (2) | +5.4% (3) | +16.0% (3) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +10.2% (5) | +31.6% (1) | +0.0% (1) |
| Communication Services | — | +17.9% (1) | +17.3% (2) | +13.1% (1) | +30.5% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +19.8% (3) | — | — | +15.6% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +12.4% (1) | — | +37.8% (1) | +8.1% (2) |
| Energy | — | +18.3% (1) | -13.2% (1) | +10.8% (1) | +9.2% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +12.9% (3) | — | — |
| Utilities | — | +61.9% (1) | -2.2% (1) | — | -1.8% (1) |
| Real Estate | -1.6% (1) | — | +32.7% (1) | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +19.9% (1) | — | -6.5% (1) |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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