This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: AMKR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-27 Checkpoint: 2026-10-27 Entry price: $60.60 Latest price: $36.81 as of 2026-10-26 Stock return since entry: -39.3% Signal return: +39.3% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Previous checkpoint: our 2-month review (2026-09-27) was correct (stock return -11.5% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that AMKR was priced for a cash-conversion story that had not yet shown up, even though revenue growth and EBITDA margin were already decent. My Sell case rested on three specific risks: free cash flow staying negative, valuation remaining rich at 34.5x trailing earnings, and the business still being exposed to cycle timing, capex discipline, and customer concentration. I also said I would get more constructive only if quarterly revenue stayed above $1.7B and free cash flow turned positive for two straight quarters.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| AMKR (this call) | -39.3% |
| ASX | +11.8% |
| GFS | -13.8% |
| STM | -11.4% |
| TSEM | -19.3% |
| TSM | +8.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following the Sell would have earned 39.3%, because AMKR fell from my entry price to $36.81. That outcome supports the core of my thesis: the market has not rewarded the stock for the cash conversion profile I thought was already priced in. The peer set has been mixed, with several comparable names also lower, but a few moving higher, so AMKR’s decline is not just a broad peer-group move; it still stands out as a name where the bearish setup has worked. The specific concern I highlighted about valuation and the need for stronger cash generation has remained relevant, because the stock has moved in the direction a short thesis needed even as the broader comparable group was not uniformly weak.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If AMKR can sustain quarterly revenue above $1.7B and show two consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow, that would directly challenge my original Sell. I would also reassess if the company demonstrates that capex is translating into durable cash conversion rather than just supporting growth. A renewed move higher in margins without the cash flow follow-through would not be enough on its own to invalidate the bearish case, but it would weaken it materially.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.44 | +163.9% | -163.9% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $20.95 | +18.1% | -18.1% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $183.33 | +17.3% | -17.3% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $66.39 | -4.5% | +4.5% | Correct so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $8.32 | -7.5% | +7.5% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $124.31 | +12.4% | +12.4% | Correct so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $6.41 | -13.7% | +13.7% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $203.35 | -17.9% | +17.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $333.46 | -18.3% | +18.3% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $260.52 | -33.5% | +33.5% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $62.97 | -36.0% | +36.0% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $203.53 | -36.3% | +36.3% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $6.84 | -41.4% | +41.4% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $4.40 | -43.8% | +43.8% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $172.59 | -54.7% | +54.7% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $5.27 | -40.2% | +60.3% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $5.50 | -61.9% | +61.9% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $7.71 | -64.7% | +64.7% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Technology
How are our Technology calls doing overall, and where does AMKR sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Sell | 2026-07-08 | +64.7% |
| AEHR | Sell | 2026-06-18 | +50.9% |
| SOUN | Sell | 2026-06-14 | +42.2% |
| ONTO | Sell | 2026-07-14 | +36.3% |
| ICHR | Sell | 2026-09-27 | +35.9% |
| NVTS | Sell | 2026-10-03 | +31.9% |
| SMTC | Strong Sell | 2026-10-13 | +31.3% |
| LRCX | Sell | 2026-08-16 | +30.9% |
Across sectors, Industrials led with a 93% hit rate and +25.1% average signal return, while Communication Services also stood out at 100% and +19.2%. Technology was solid with 24 calls, an 83% hit rate, and +15.1% average signal return, and its best call was CIFR +64.7% while its worst was NLST -163.9%. At the lower end, Healthcare lagged at 62% and +9.7%, and Utilities was thin with 3 calls, so we note its 33% hit rate and +19.3% average signal return without ranking it as a leader or laggard. Thin sectors not ranked were Real Estate and Unclassified, each with 2 calls.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 14 | 93% | +25.1% | BW +76.5% | CAR -13.1% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +19.3% | FLNC +61.9% | AES -2.2% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +19.2% | LUMN +30.5% | GTN +9.5% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +18.7% | MARA +41.4% | BMNR -18.1% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +16.6% | LAR +37.8% | GFI -1.4% |
| Technology | 24 | 83% | +15.1% | CIFR +64.7% | NLST -163.9% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +12.9% | PENN +19.7% | OI +5.2% |
| Healthcare | 8 | 62% | +9.7% | CUE +31.6% | SDGR -40.8% |
| Energy | 4 | 75% | +6.3% | TPL +18.3% | VNOM -13.2% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +15.6% | SRG +32.7% | SKYH -1.6% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +6.7% | NXE +19.9% | FISV -6.5% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +46.5% (2) | -3.3% (7) | +20.5% (3) | +24.2% (6) | +14.2% (6) |
| Industrials | +76.5% (1) | +39.9% (5) | +5.4% (2) | +5.4% (3) | +16.0% (3) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +10.2% (5) | +31.6% (1) | +0.0% (1) |
| Communication Services | — | +17.9% (1) | +17.3% (2) | +13.1% (1) | +30.5% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +19.8% (3) | — | — | +15.6% (1) |
| Energy | — | +18.3% (1) | -13.2% (1) | +10.8% (1) | +9.2% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +12.4% (1) | — | +37.8% (1) | +8.1% (2) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +12.9% (3) | — | — |
| Utilities | — | +61.9% (1) | -2.2% (1) | — | -1.8% (1) |
| Unclassified | — | — | +19.9% (1) | — | -6.5% (1) |
| Real Estate | -1.6% (1) | — | +32.7% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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