This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: AMKR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-27 Checkpoint: 2026-09-27 Entry price: $60.60 Latest price: $53.61 as of 2026-09-25 Stock return since entry: -11.5% Signal return: +11.5% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that AMKR was a cash-generative packaging business, but that the stock was still vulnerable because the market was paying for cash conversion that had not shown up yet. My specific concerns were negative free cash flow, a rich trailing earnings multiple, and the risk that capex, customer concentration, or a pause in semiconductor demand would expose how much optimism was already embedded in the price.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| AMKR (this call) | -11.5% |
| ASX | +21.2% |
| GFS | -7.6% |
| STM | -2.7% |
| TSEM | +2.8% |
| TSM | +13.2% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell call would have earned about 11.5%, which means the bearish signal has worked in the right direction. The stock has also moved differently from much of the peer set, with several comparable names higher over the same stretch, so AMKR’s decline was not just a broad industry move. The part of my thesis that has held up best is the valuation-and-cash-flow tension: the market has not rewarded the company for the growth story alone, and the stock has instead repriced lower. I have not yet seen evidence that the specific risks I named, especially negative free cash flow and cycle sensitivity, have been resolved in a way that would invalidate the call.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
Because this review window is still open, I would be wrong if AMKR shows that the cash conversion problem is behind it. Two consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow, along with quarterly revenue staying above the $1.7B level I cited, would directly challenge my Sell thesis. I would also have to reconsider if margins expand meaningfully without a deterioration in customer concentration or utilization, because that would suggest the capex burden is finally translating into durable earnings power.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.56 | +127.9% | -127.9% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $27.56 | +55.4% | -55.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.62 | +29.3% | -29.3% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.96 | +20.6% | -20.6% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $173.46 | +11.0% | -11.0% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $12.55 | +7.5% | -7.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $73.02 | +5.0% | -5.0% | Incorrect so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $72.68 | -0.3% | +0.3% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $96.82 | -1.5% | +1.5% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.42 | -4.4% | +6.6% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $287.64 | -9.9% | +9.9% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $122.70 | +11.0% | +11.0% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $6.66 | -14.9% | +14.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $341.07 | -16.5% | +16.5% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $201.44 | -18.6% | +18.6% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $17.73 | -18.9% | +18.9% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $292.58 | -25.3% | +25.3% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $212.85 | -44.1% | +44.1% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.85 | -45.6% | +45.6% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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