This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: SMR Rating: Strong Sell Published: 2026-07-23
Entry price: $8.81 Latest price: $8.61 as of 2026-09-11 Stock return since entry: -2.3% Signal return: +3.4% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2027-01-21.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that SMR was a Strong Sell because the company was still burning cash at a pace its current revenue base could not support, while the stock already assumed a very successful commercialization path. I also pointed to the 110.5x EV/Revenue multiple, the TTM operating cash flow of -$751.5M, and the risk that funding needs, dilution, and contract conversion would matter more than the long-term nuclear story.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| SMR (this call) | -2.3% |
| BWXT | -14.9% |
| LEU | -10.8% |
| NNE | -2.8% |
| OKLO | -17.7% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that bearish call has worked in the sense that following the Strong Sell would have earned a positive signal return of about 3.4% over the tracking window. The stock itself is only modestly lower, so this is not a dramatic win, but it does mean the market has not rewarded the commercialization story enough to invalidate my caution yet. The peer group has also been broadly weak, with BWXT, LEU, NNE, and OKLO all down over the same stretch, which is consistent with the idea that this part of the nuclear trade has been under pressure rather than SMR uniquely proving the bull case. What has been validated most clearly is my concern that valuation and financing risk were doing a lot of the work in the thesis; what has not yet been proven is whether a binding customer contract or a meaningful improvement in cash burn will arrive soon enough to change the story.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I could still be wrong if SMR converts the pipeline into binding revenue visibility, especially through a RoPower EPC contract or an ENTRA1 PPA and OEM agreement, and the market starts treating that as durable commercialization rather than optionality. I would also have to reconsider if operating losses and cash burn narrow materially from the levels I cited, because that would reduce the dilution pressure I thought was central to the bear case. If the company keeps relying on financing while those contracts remain non-binding, that would support my original call; if the opposite happens, it would not.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $4.85 | +98.8% | -98.8% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $25.03 | +41.1% | -41.1% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.62 | +18.1% | -18.1% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.99 | +7.5% | -7.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $74.31 | +6.9% | -6.9% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.98 | +2.7% | -2.7% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $7.96 | +1.7% | -1.7% | Incorrect so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $98.60 | +0.3% | -0.3% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $156.07 | -0.1% | +0.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.86 | -6.9% | +6.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $369.10 | -9.6% | +9.6% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $281.26 | -11.9% | +11.9% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $215.47 | -13.0% | +13.0% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $51.73 | -14.6% | +14.6% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $135.88 | +22.9% | +22.9% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $16.85 | -22.9% | +22.9% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $291.26 | -25.6% | +25.6% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $9.93 | -31.1% | +31.1% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $240.41 | -36.8% | +36.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
Leave a Comment