This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: MSTR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-10-01 Checkpoint: 2026-11-01 Entry price: $160.50 Latest price: $130.51 as of 2026-10-30 Stock return since entry: -18.7% Signal return: +18.7% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
- Rated sell — valuation assumes bitcoin optionality the operating business has not earned.
- Strongest support is the treasury: 717,131 bitcoins as of February 13, 2026.
- Biggest risk is cash strain: levered free cash flow was -$22.6B TTM.
- The stock trades at 155.7x EV/revenue and 124.7x price/sales.
- I would turn more constructive only if operating margin turns positive and the reserve keeps
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| MSTR (this call) | -18.7% |
| BMNR | -24.5% |
| BTDR | -36.9% |
| CIFR | -52.8% |
| HUT | -31.2% |
| MARA | -39.6% |
How Other Analysts Rate It
Every Wall Street rating action logged on Yahoo Finance since our Sell on 2026-10-01, one row per action (a firm that updates three times appears three times). LF0 rows are in bold.
| Date | Firm | Rating | Action | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | Original call at $160.50 | |
| 2026-10-02 | Citigroup | Buy | Reiterated | $240.00 (from $136.00) |
| 2026-10-09 | Barclays | Overweight | Reiterated | $175.00 (from $160.00) |
| 2026-10-16 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Reiterated | $208.00 (from $186.00) |
| 2026-10-30 | BTIG | Buy | Reiterated | $250.00 |
| 2026-11-01 | LF0 Equity Research | Sell | 1-month update (this report) |
No analyst changed their rating on this stock since our Sell on 2026-10-01; the table shows reiterations and price-target changes only.
4 firms still Buy-rated against our call at their latest action: Citigroup, Barclays, Cantor Fitzgerald and BTIG.
Counting each firm’s latest action in this window: 4 bullish, 0 neutral, 0 bearish out of 4 firms.
Source: Yahoo Finance analyst rating actions. Dates are when Yahoo logged the action. Analyst ratings are third-party opinions, not LF0 views or recommendations.
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Entry $160.50, latest $130.51, stock return -18.7%. Verdict: Correct so far.
The October 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENPH | Strong Sell | n/a | $25.65 | n/a | n/a | Pending |
| FISV | Sell | $45.38 | $50.02 | +10.2% | -10.2% | Incorrect so far |
| GFI | Buy | $35.69 | $32.92 | -7.8% | -7.8% | Incorrect so far |
| CRSP | Strong Sell | $49.01 | $51.42 | +4.9% | -7.4% | Incorrect so far |
| TLN | Sell | $331.87 | $343.12 | +3.4% | -3.4% | Incorrect so far |
| VKTX | Strong Sell | $26.86 | $27.28 | +1.6% | -2.3% | Incorrect so far |
| LUNR | Strong Sell | $10.52 | $10.67 | +1.4% | -2.1% | Incorrect so far |
| TPL | Strong Sell | $330.43 | $331.68 | +0.4% | -0.6% | Incorrect so far |
| STRC | Strong Sell | $98.92 | $99.13 | +0.2% | -0.3% | Incorrect so far |
| SM | Buy | $40.38 | $40.38 | +0.0% | +0.0% | Incorrect so far |
| EVH | Strong Sell | $4.42 | $4.30 | -2.7% | +4.1% | Correct so far |
| USAR | Strong Sell | $10.09 | $9.62 | -4.7% | +7.0% | Correct so far |
| CCJ | Sell | $87.12 | $76.91 | -11.7% | +11.7% | Correct so far |
| JOBY | Sell | $5.78 | $4.90 | -15.2% | +15.2% | Correct so far |
| LUMN | Strong Sell | $5.56 | $4.88 | -12.2% | +18.3% | Correct so far |
| WULF | Strong Sell | $13.37 | $11.73 | -12.3% | +18.4% | Correct so far |
| UMAC | Strong Sell | $17.73 | $15.53 | -12.4% | +18.6% | Correct so far |
| FIX | Sell | $1,741.36 | $1,232.66 | -29.2% | +29.2% | Correct so far |
| NVTS | Sell | $12.34 | $8.48 | -31.3% | +31.3% | Correct so far |
| SMTC | Strong Sell | $172.78 | $127.38 | -26.3% | +39.4% | Correct so far |
| INOD | Strong Sell | $59.91 | $43.81 | -26.9% | +40.3% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Technology
How are our Technology calls doing overall, and where does MSTR sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Sell | 2026-07-08 | +66.6% |
| AEHR | Sell | 2026-06-18 | +52.4% |
| SOUN | Sell | 2026-06-14 | +42.4% |
| INOD | Strong Sell | 2026-10-10 | +40.3% |
| SMTC | Strong Sell | 2026-10-13 | +39.4% |
| ONTO | Sell | 2026-07-14 | +36.9% |
| AMKR | Sell | 2026-07-27 | +34.8% |
| ICHR | Sell | 2026-09-27 | +34.5% |
Among sectors with at least 3 directional calls, Industrials has done best, with an average signal return of +23.8% across 14 calls and a 79% hit rate. Healthcare has done worst, at +4.2% across 10 calls and a 60% hit rate. Technology, the sector of this call, stands at +18.7% across 24 calls. Samples are small and sector gaps can reverse quickly, so we read this as a scoreboard, not a forecast.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 14 | 79% | +23.8% | BW +76.0% | CAR -7.9% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +21.6% | MARA +42.0% | BMNR -13.8% |
| Technology | 24 | 88% | +18.7% | CIFR +66.6% | NLST -159.0% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +18.3% | FLNC +60.3% | TLN -3.4% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +15.9% | SPHR +25.9% | CHTR +5.2% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +14.4% | OI +24.6% | RRGB +4.2% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +13.2% | LAR +39.1% | GFI -7.8% |
| Energy | 6 | 50% | +4.2% | TPL +19.1% | VNOM -14.4% |
| Healthcare | 10 | 60% | +4.2% | STXS +38.1% | SDGR -56.0% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +13.9% | SRG +33.4% | SKYH -5.5% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +5.1% | NXE +20.5% | FISV -10.2% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +47.4% (2) | -1.1% (7) | +21.9% (3) | +24.6% (6) | +24.7% (6) |
| Industrials | +76.0% (1) | +36.2% (5) | +6.0% (2) | +7.6% (3) | +14.1% (3) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +6.0% (5) | +22.6% (1) | -1.9% (3) |
| Energy | — | +19.1% (1) | -14.4% (1) | +9.5% (1) | +3.7% (3) |
| Communication Services | — | +23.2% (1) | +16.5% (2) | +5.2% (1) | +18.3% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +22.6% (3) | — | — | +18.4% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +14.6% (1) | — | +39.1% (1) | -0.4% (2) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +14.4% (3) | — | — |
| Utilities | — | +60.3% (1) | -2.0% (1) | — | -3.4% (1) |
| Unclassified | — | — | +20.5% (1) | — | -10.2% (1) |
| Real Estate | -5.5% (1) | — | +33.4% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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