This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: HUT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-14 Checkpoint: 2026-09-14 Entry price: $98.33 Latest price: $91.61 as of 2026-09-14 Stock return since entry: -6.8% Signal return: +6.8% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that HUT’s bull case depended on several things happening together: project delivery, financing, and a better conversion of revenue into cash. I also pointed to specific checkpoints I wanted to see before changing my mind, especially positive EBITDA, a meaningful reduction in levered free cash flow burn from the -$300.6M TTM level, and evidence that revenue could stay above the Q1 2026 level while the 200-day moving average was reclaimed and held.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| HUT (this call) | -6.8% |
| APLD | -13.7% |
| CIFR | -21.4% |
| CORZ | -23.2% |
| IREN | +11.8% |
| WULF | -20.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, a short position would have earned about 6.8%, which means my Sell call has worked in the direction I expected. The stock has weakened while the peer group has been mixed to mostly lower, so HUT has not been an outlier on the downside, but it has still moved in the bearish direction I was looking for. More importantly, the specific thesis I wrote around cash burn and the need for positive EBITDA has not been disproven by the price action; I have not seen evidence here that the company has already cleared those hurdles. I can’t claim the full case is validated yet, though, because the review window is still open and the operational checkpoints I named are the real test, not just the share price.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What would prove me wrong is a sustained move back above my cited technical and operating thresholds: revenue holding above the Q1 2026 level for several quarters, the 200-day moving average being reclaimed and maintained, and a clear step-down in levered free cash flow burn from the -$300.6M TTM figure. If HUT also shows positive EBITDA and free cash flow from River Bend and the broader AI build, then the financing and cash-conversion concerns behind my Sell would no longer be intact. If instead the company keeps burning cash and delays continue, that would support my original view rather than overturn it.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $4.79 | +96.3% | -96.3% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $25.20 | +42.1% | -42.1% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.60 | +17.9% | -17.9% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.97 | +7.2% | -7.2% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $164.10 | +5.0% | -5.0% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $71.90 | +3.4% | -3.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $7.89 | +0.8% | -0.8% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.61 | -0.5% | +0.5% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.40 | -4.6% | +6.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $371.00 | -9.1% | +9.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $65.31 | -10.4% | +10.4% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $217.04 | -12.3% | +12.3% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $258.90 | -18.9% | +18.9% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $48.33 | -20.2% | +20.2% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $136.47 | +23.4% | +23.4% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $16.18 | -25.9% | +25.9% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $279.39 | -28.6% | +28.6% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $9.60 | -33.4% | +33.4% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $232.15 | -39.0% | +39.0% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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