The Scorecard: 4 Month Update: MTZ Sell — Correct so far

This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.

Ticker: MTZ Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-05 Checkpoint: 2026-11-05 Entry price: $380.63 Latest price: $167.61 as of 2026-11-04 Stock return since entry: -56.0% Signal return: +56.0% Verdict: Correct so far

This is the 4-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.

Previous checkpoint: our 3-month review (2026-10-05) was correct (stock return -42.4% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.

Read the original LF0 analysis

What I Said

I rated MTZ a Sell because I thought the bull case still depended on margin expansion and cash conversion that had not yet shown up in the numbers. My view was that the disclosed policy, tariff, and execution risks could keep delaying project flow, while the stock was already priced for much better earnings quality than the business was delivering. I also pointed to the gap between the 12.8% gross margin and the 0.1% TTM FCF margin as evidence that profits were not yet translating into cash for shareholders.

Peer Comparison

How Other Analysts Rate It

Every Wall Street rating action logged on Yahoo Finance since our Sell on 2026-07-06, one row per action (a firm that updates three times appears three times). LF0 rows are in bold.

No analyst changed their rating on this stock since our Sell on 2026-07-06; the table shows reiterations and price-target changes only.

15 firms still Buy-rated against our call at their latest action: Mizuho, Baird, Cantor Fitzgerald, TD Cowen, Guggenheim, Citigroup, Keybanc, Truist Securities, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Piper Sandler, Stifel, Barclays, JP Morgan and Roth Capital.

Counting each firm’s latest action in this window: 15 bullish, 0 neutral, 0 bearish out of 15 firms.

Source: Yahoo Finance analyst rating actions. Dates are when Yahoo logged the action. Analyst ratings are third-party opinions, not LF0 views or recommendations.

Why It’s Working (Or Not)

That call has worked over this tracking window: if I had shorted MTZ at my entry price, I would be up 55.97% to date. The stock has fallen sharply while the peer group has also been weak overall, but MTZ has still been one of the more pronounced decliners, which is consistent with my caution on cash conversion and project timing. The specific concern I highlighted — that the business was not yet turning gross profit into free cash flow — has not been contradicted by the price action; instead, the market has continued to mark down the shares. On that basis, the Sell has been validated through this review date, even though the broader peer set has also moved lower.

What Could Still Prove Me Wrong

What would change my view is a sustained improvement in the exact operating markers I called out: operating margin moving materially above 3.7% and levered free cash flow turning meaningfully positive. If revenue were to stabilize or grow while EBITDA and cash conversion improved enough to show that project flow is no longer being absorbed by costs and overhead, the bearish case would weaken. A reversal in the policy, tariff, or execution drag that restores consistent project timing would also undercut the thesis.

The July 2026 Cohort

Other directional calls published the same month:

Sector Scorecard: Industrials

How are our Industrials calls doing overall, and where does MTZ sit among them?

We led the league table in Industrials with a 100% hit rate across 14 calls and a +28.5% average signal return, with BW at +79.2% as the best call and LHX at +0.5% as the worst. Technology was next at 88% and +22.2%, while Financial Services and Basic Materials both posted strong results, though both were thin at 4 calls and should be treated cautiously. At the other end, Healthcare lagged with a 45% hit rate and a -1.1% average signal return, and its range was wide from STXS at +31.1% to SDGR at -63.9%. Thin sectors not ranked were Real Estate and Unclassified, each with 2 calls.

Sector League Table

\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.

Sector by Publish Month

Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.

Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.