This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: MTZ Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-05 Checkpoint: 2026-08-05 Entry price: $380.63 Latest price: $266.75 as of 2026-08-05 Stock return since entry: -29.9% Signal return: +29.9% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated MTZ a Sell because I thought the bull case still depended on margin expansion and cash conversion that had not yet shown up in the numbers. My focus was on the weak 0.1% TTM free cash flow margin, the 12.8% gross margin not yet flowing through to cash, and the idea that policy, tariff, and project-timing risks could keep delaying project flow. I also said I would only soften that view if operating margin moved materially above 3.7% and levered free cash flow turned meaningfully positive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| MTZ (this call) | -29.9% |
| DY | -32.8% |
| EME | -6.5% |
| FIX | -14.5% |
| PWR | -10.0% |
| STRL | -34.8% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following the Sell has earned me a 29.9% gain on the short side, so the call has worked in the direction I expected. That outcome is consistent with my original concern that the earnings base was not yet converting into shareholder cash, and the stock has moved lower while the peer group has also been broadly weaker, which tells me this has not been a lone move against a strong industry tape. I cannot claim the thesis is fully proven yet, because I do not have fresh evidence here that operating margin has cleared my 3.7% threshold or that levered free cash flow has turned meaningfully positive. But on the numbers I was watching, the original caution has held up so far rather than being disproven.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If MTZ shows a sustained step-up in operating margin above 3.7% and levered free cash flow turns clearly positive, that would directly challenge my cash-conversion thesis. I would also have to reconsider if revenue and EBITDA stay firm while the company demonstrates that project timing, tariff, and policy risks are no longer delaying cash realization. Until I see that kind of evidence, the original bear case remains intact.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.90 | +182.8% | -182.8% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $24.18 | +36.3% | -36.3% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.61 | +18.0% | -18.0% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.26 | +11.2% | -11.2% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.54 | +9.1% | -9.1% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.28 | +5.3% | -8.0% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $168.59 | +7.9% | -7.9% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $67.39 | -3.1% | +3.1% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $70.03 | -3.9% | +3.9% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.92 | $369.54 | -9.6% | +9.6% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.45 | -10.4% | +10.4% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $220.02 | -11.1% | +11.1% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.07 | +14.0% | +14.0% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $267.81 | -16.1% | +16.1% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $77.88 | -20.8% | +20.8% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $47.83 | -21.2% | +21.2% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.83 | -24.9% | +24.9% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $291.97 | -25.4% | +25.4% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $14.93 | -31.7% | +31.7% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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