This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: BA Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-24 Checkpoint: 2026-10-24 Entry price: $210.46 Latest price: $188.35 as of 2026-10-23 Stock return since entry: -10.5% Signal return: +10.5% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Previous checkpoint: our 1-month review (2026-09-24) was correct (stock return -6.5% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated BA a Sell because I thought the recovery was still too fragile to justify the valuation: the stock was already pricing in a lot at 50.8x forward P/E and 2.1x EV/revenue, while the operating base was still weak with a -3.1% TTM EBITDA margin. I also pointed to the balance sheet, with $48.4B of debt, and said I would only get more constructive if 737 output held at 47 aircraft per month for more than one quarter.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| BA (this call) | -10.5% |
| BAESY | -8.7% |
| EADSY | -9.2% |
| HON | +3.0% |
| LMT | +7.8% |
| RTX | -8.7% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following the Sell would have earned 10.5%, which means the bearish call has worked to date. The stock has moved lower from my entry, and that lines up with my view that the market was paying up for a recovery that still depended on execution rather than a clean turnaround. The peer set has been mixed, with BAESY, EADSY, and RTX also lower while HON and LMT have moved higher, so Boeing has not simply been dragged down by the whole group. That makes the original valuation-and-execution concern look more credible, especially given how much of the thesis rested on a recovery that had not yet proven durable.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What would change my view is a sustained confirmation that the production reset is sticking: 737 output holding at 47 aircraft per month for more than one quarter, with 787 output staying at eight per month. I would also be challenged if Boeing showed that the 777X program was no longer a drag, especially if the first delivery stayed in 2027 without another reach-forward loss. If those operating markers hold while the stock continues to re-rate, the case that the multiple was too rich for the risk would weaken materially.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $23.80 | +36.8% | -36.8% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $46.94 | +12.7% | -12.7% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $15.00 | +2.0% | -2.0% | Incorrect so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $253.97 | -2.7% | +2.7% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $6.47 | -4.7% | +4.7% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.58 | -5.2% | +5.2% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $209.59 | +11.2% | +11.2% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $8.15 | -14.3% | +14.3% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $6.43 | -17.1% | +17.1% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.35 | -18.2% | +18.2% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $8.15 | -21.6% | +21.6% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $14.50 | -21.9% | +21.9% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $108.94 | -26.1% | +26.1% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.02 | -26.6% | +26.6% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $56.15 | -27.9% | +27.9% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.10 | -29.4% | +29.4% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $230.10 | -33.0% | +33.0% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.62 | -23.2% | +34.8% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Industrials
How are our Industrials calls doing overall, and where does BA sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| BW | Sell | 2026-06-19 | +76.6% |
| SMR | Strong Sell | 2026-07-23 | +58.4% |
| MTZ | Sell | 2026-07-05 | +55.1% |
| RCAT | Sell | 2026-07-22 | +43.4% |
| MYRG | Sell | 2026-07-17 | +35.0% |
| FIX | Sell | 2026-10-07 | +33.3% |
| PL | Sell | 2026-09-18 | +18.3% |
| JOBY | Sell | 2026-10-04 | +17.6% |
We saw Industrials lead the league table with 14 calls, an 86% hit rate, and a +25.8% average signal return, with BW +76.6% as the best call and CAR -13.6% as the worst. Utilities was next at +20.2% with a 67% hit rate, while Financial Services posted +18.6% and a 75% hit rate; Communication Services was perfect at 100% on 5 calls, and Technology delivered an 88% hit rate with +16.6%. Thin samples were present in Utilities, Financial Services, Communication Services, Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, Energy, Real Estate, and Unclassified, so we do not overread those smaller books. The weakest sector was Energy at +3.8%, and the worst single call across the table was NLST at -140.6% in Technology.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 14 | 86% | +25.8% | BW +76.6% | CAR -13.6% |
| Utilities | 3 | 67% | +20.2% | FLNC +61.2% | AES -2.0% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +18.6% | MARA +39.8% | BMNR -26.3% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +16.7% | LUMN +26.7% | GTN +5.2% |
| Technology | 24 | 88% | +16.6% | CIFR +63.7% | NLST -140.6% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +14.6% | LAR +36.7% | GFI -3.1% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.6% | PENN +21.9% | OI +4.7% |
| Healthcare | 7 | 71% | +12.0% | CUE +30.8% | SDGR -36.8% |
| Energy | 4 | 75% | +3.8% | TPL +17.1% | VNOM -12.7% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +16.6% | SRG +34.8% | SKYH -1.7% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +5.9% | NXE +21.6% | FISV -9.9% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +45.8% (2) | +0.6% (7) | +22.8% (3) | +25.1% (6) | +13.9% (6) |
| Industrials | +76.6% (1) | +39.8% (5) | +6.6% (2) | +7.3% (3) | +17.0% (3) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +11.7% (5) | +30.8% (1) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +17.7% (1) | +15.6% (2) | +7.6% (1) | +26.7% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +17.1% (3) | — | — | +23.0% (1) |
| Energy | — | +17.1% (1) | -12.7% (1) | +0.9% (1) | +9.8% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +13.4% (1) | — | +36.7% (1) | +4.1% (2) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.6% (3) | — | — |
| Utilities | — | +61.2% (1) | -2.0% (1) | — | +1.2% (1) |
| Unclassified | — | — | +21.6% (1) | — | -9.9% (1) |
| Real Estate | -1.7% (1) | — | +34.8% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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