Executive Summary
Across 188 tracked articles, directional calls have an 80% hit rate and +11.7% average signal return through October 15, 2026, so the overall record is still solid this run. Among the tiers with meaningful sample sizes, Sell is performing best on accuracy and average signal return, while Buy is the weakest on both measures; Hold remains close to flat on average stock return.
This is one in a recurring series that reviews LF0 Research’s own past ratings against what actually happened to the stock. The goal is an honest scorecard, not a highlight reel — full methodology and every call we’ve ever made is at /research-performance/.
If You’d Followed Every Pick
Beyond individual calls, here’s the model portfolio question: what if you’d put $1 into every Buy/Strong Buy pick the day we published it, and a separate $1 short into every Sell/Strong Sell pick? We’ve rated stocks at very different times — some calls go back to June 2026, others were made last week — so each pick’s $1 only joins its book on its own publish date. The return below is pooled value versus total capital actually deployed at each point in time, not a return measured from one shared start date.
- Long book: -3.3% on 5 pick(s), $1 each. $5.00 deployed is worth $4.83 today.
- Short book: +12.1% on 65 pick(s), $1 each. $65.00 deployed is worth $72.87 today.
- Combined, long + short (i.e. every pick since we started): +11.0% on 70 pick(s), $1 each. $70.00 deployed is worth $77.71 today.
For comparison, here’s what the same $70.00 would have returned in a lump-sum buy-and-hold of the broad market since our first tracked pick (2026-06-09). This isn’t an identical methodology, since our capital went in gradually rather than all at once, but it’s the closest honest same-period reference point:
- S&P 500 (SPY): +5.2%. $70.00 would be worth $73.67 today.
- Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): +3.1%. $70.00 would be worth $72.15 today.
This Week’s Calls
BW — Sell (Notable mover — best active signal return)
What happened: We entered at 17.760000228881836 and the latest price is 4.960000038146973. That is a stock return of -0.7207207221720147.
Why: Our Sell call held up because the stock kept moving against the recovery setup we were worried about. The original conclusion leaned on the 2026 debt maturity and weak cash generation, and the price action shows the market did not wait for that turnaround to arrive.
FLNC — Sell (Notable mover — best active signal return)
What we said: We said FLNC still had to prove that its software and installed-base advantage could turn into durable cash generation. We also flagged the 115.9 GW pipeline and 7.5 GW contracted backlog as the long-term support, but noted that the business was still leaning on financing and working-capital support rather than internal cash.
What happened: We entered at 14.420000076293944 and the latest price is 6.429999828338623. That is a stock return of -0.554091553792059.
Why: That call held up because the specific concern about cash generation remained the key issue, and the stock fell sharply instead of rewarding the backlog story. The backlog was real, but the market kept focusing on the lack of self-funding economics, which is exactly what we highlighted.
CIFR — Sell (Notable mover — best active signal return)
What happened: We entered at 21.850000381469727 and the latest price is 10.039999961853027. That is a stock return of -0.5405034422622883.
Why: Our Sell view was supported because the stock did not sustain the premium implied by the HPC ramp story. The original stance centered on leverage and the gap between pipeline assets and repeatable cash generation, and the decline shows that caution was warranted.
NLST — Sell (Notable mover — worst active signal return)
What we said: – We rated sell because the stock prices in cleaner cash conversion than Netlist has delivered.
- Strongest point: Q1 2026 revenue reached $104.9M, with EBITDA turning positive at $8.6M.
- Biggest risk: operating cash flow was -$15.5M TTM, so earnings are not yet self-funding.
- Valuation is rich at 5.3x EV/revenue and 48.7x EV/EBITDA.
- We would raise our rating if quarterly revenue stays above $100M and operating cash flow turns positive.
What happened: We entered at 2.440000057220459 and the latest price is 5.909999847412109. That is a stock return of 1.422131028203549.
Why: This was an incorrect call so far because the market rewarded the revenue and EBITDA improvement more than we expected. The specific cash-conversion warning has not been enough to offset the rerating, so our valuation caution has not held up in the near term.
SDGR — Sell (Notable mover — worst active signal return)
What we said: – We rated sell because valuation still prices in growth that cash flow has not earned.
- Strongest point: the platform’s gross margin is 56.9% TTM.
- Biggest risk: operating cash flow is -$126.9M TTM.
- Valuation is rich at 3.9x EV/Revenue and 5.1x P/S.
- We would only improve the rating if free cash flow turns positive and revenue growth re-accelerates.
What happened: We entered at 17.399999618530273 and the latest price is 25.479999542236328. That is a stock return of 0.46436782188783443.
Why: This was also incorrect so far because the stock moved higher even though the cash-flow concerns we emphasized were still unresolved in the original thesis. The moat and margin profile mattered more to the market than our valuation warning did, so the sell case did not play out.
CAR — Buy (Notable mover — worst active signal return)
What we said: – We rated buy because cash flow and margins still support a higher equity value.
- Strongest point: 7.2B of TTM levered free cash flow.
- Biggest risk: 29.1B of debt and 18.6x net debt/EBITDA.
- Valuation is mixed: 21.4x EV/EBITDA, but 26.3% FCF yield.
- We would raise our rating if free cash flow stays above 7B for two quarters.
What happened: We entered at 186.27999877929688 and the latest price is 109.7699966430664. That is a stock return of -0.41072580329399155.
Why: Our Buy call did not hold up because the balance-sheet risk overwhelmed the cash-flow support we pointed to. The original thesis depended on free cash flow offsetting leverage, and the share price shows that the market focused more on the debt burden than on the FCF yield.
How Each Rating Did
Buy — 5 call(s)
Buy is mixed this run: with only 5 calls, the 0.6 accuracy is not enough for us to call it a durable edge. UAN helped the tier, but CAR was the clear drag and showed how quickly leverage can overpower a cash-flow argument.
Hold — 118 call(s)
Hold remains the most measured tier in the set, with 118 calls and a near-flat average stock return. RTX was the steadiest name, while TEAM moved the most, which is a good reminder that Hold can still see big moves even when the rating is meant to be neutral.
Sell — 57 call(s)
Sell is the strongest tier this run on both accuracy and average signal return, and the sample size is large enough to take that seriously. BW was the best outcome in the tier, while NLST was the biggest miss, showing that our caution usually helped but not always when the market rewarded a turnaround story early.
Strong Sell — 8 call(s)
Strong Sell is positive on average, but with only 8 calls we should treat the 75% accuracy carefully. SMR was the standout winner, while STRC was the weakest result, so the tier has worked well enough to matter without being a blanket signal.
Sector Tilt
How the calls we’re actively tracking are distributed across sectors:
| Sector | Long | Short | Hold | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 0 | 24 | 24 | 48 |
| Industrials | 1 | 12 | 20 | 33 |
| Healthcare | 2 | 5 | 11 | 18 |
| Consumer Cyclical | 0 | 3 | 13 | 16 |
| Financial Services | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| Basic Materials | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
| Energy | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| Communication Services | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Utilities | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Real Estate | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Consumer Defensive | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Unclassified | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Cumulative Signal Return
Lessons This Week
This week reinforced a familiar split: our bearish calls worked best when the thesis was about cash burn, leverage, or refinancing pressure, but they were weaker when the market was willing to pay ahead of visible cash conversion. The biggest misses came from names where revenue or margin improvement was enough to re-rate the stock before the cash-flow proof we wanted had arrived.
Conclusion
Putting it all together: a $1 long book of every Buy/Strong Buy pick is at $0.97 (-3.3%) across 5 picks; and a $1 short book of every Sell/Strong Sell pick is at $1.12 (+12.1%) across 65 picks.
So far, the short book has outpaced the long book.
This is a running scorecard, not a finished one — both books will keep changing as more picks join and more tracking windows close. We’ll keep restating this comparison every week.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Ratings are tracked for 182 days from publication, then frozen as a permanent record.
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