This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: TPL Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-12 Checkpoint: 2026-10-12 Entry price: $408.26 Latest price: $360.98 as of 2026-10-09 Stock return since entry: -11.6% Signal return: +11.6% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated TPL a Sell because I thought the stock was already pricing in a lot of quality: the moat and margins were real, but the valuation was stretched at 32.4x EV/Revenue and 39.4x EV/EBITDA while levered free cash flow was still negative. I also said I would be more comfortable if quarterly revenue stayed above about $225M and free cash flow turned positive, because that would show the premium multiple was being backed by durable cash generation rather than just strong accounting results.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| TPL (this call) | -11.6% |
| BSM | +5.8% |
| FANG | +3.4% |
| KNTK | +8.6% |
| PAA | +5.5% |
| VNOM | +2.1% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have earned 11.6%, which means the Sell call has worked to date. The stock has fallen from my entry price, and that move is consistent with my core concern that the valuation was ahead of the cash conversion story. The peer set has been mostly higher over the same stretch, so TPL has not just drifted with the group; it has moved in the opposite direction, which supports my view that the original setup was vulnerable. The specific warning I emphasized — a rich multiple without positive levered free cash flow — has held up as the right lens for the call, even though the business itself remains high quality.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If TPL can sustain quarterly revenue above roughly $225M and turn levered free cash flow positive, I would have to reconsider the bearish stance because that would show the premium valuation is being earned by cash generation. I would also watch whether EBITDA can stay in the $190M to $200M range for several quarters, since that would make the current multiple easier to defend. If oil and gas royalty revenue weakens for multiple quarters while free cash flow stays negative, that would reinforce the Sell case rather than weaken it.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.34 | +159.8% | -159.8% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $24.03 | +35.5% | -35.5% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $194.75 | +24.6% | -24.6% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $9.58 | +6.6% | -6.6% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $72.01 | +3.6% | -3.6% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.44 | +0.1% | -0.1% | Incorrect so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.43 | -7.5% | +7.5% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $294.53 | -7.8% | +7.8% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $124.75 | +12.8% | +12.8% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $213.44 | -13.8% | +13.8% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $84.27 | -14.3% | +14.3% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $9.65 | -17.3% | +17.3% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $49.12 | -18.9% | +18.9% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $311.63 | -20.4% | +20.4% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $5.77 | -26.3% | +26.3% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $7.20 | -18.3% | +27.4% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $13.52 | -38.1% | +38.1% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $212.65 | -44.1% | +44.1% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.43 | -48.5% | +48.5% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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