This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: OI Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-14 Checkpoint: 2026-10-14 Entry price: $6.79 Latest price: $5.90 as of 2026-10-13 Stock return since entry: -13.1% Signal return: +13.1% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated OI a sell because I thought the balance sheet and earnings profile left too little room for error: net debt/EBITDA was 5.1x, earnings were still deeply negative, and the stock was already pricing in a recovery that had not shown up cleanly in the numbers. I also pointed to Fit to Win as the key execution risk, with my view that I would only get more constructive if leverage fell below 4.5x and the cost reset became more visible.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| OI (this call) | -13.1% |
| BALL | -3.6% |
| CCK | -8.0% |
| GEF | -10.1% |
| GPK | -26.2% |
| SLGN | -15.8% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have earned 13.1%, so the call has worked in the direction I expected. That outcome fits the original concern that leverage and weak earnings left the stock vulnerable if the operating reset did not arrive fast enough. The peer group has also been mostly lower over the same stretch, which supports my view that OI was not being singled out by a broad rerating of the packaging group. The specific leverage threshold I highlighted has not been met in the price action I can review here, so the core bearish setup remains intact to date.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If OI can keep reducing leverage and get net debt/EBITDA below 4.5x, that would directly challenge the main reason I was bearish. I would also reassess if Fit to Win starts translating into a clearly stronger operating margin trend rather than just a narrative about cost reset. A sustained move higher in the stock while peers remain weak would also tell me the market is no longer treating the balance-sheet risk as the dominant issue.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $25.89 | +48.8% | -48.8% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $44.36 | +6.5% | -6.5% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.99 | +1.9% | -1.9% | Incorrect so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.50 | -6.8% | +6.8% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $204.36 | +8.5% | +8.5% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $8.63 | -9.3% | +9.3% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $234.72 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $6.96 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $186.49 | -11.4% | +11.4% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.45 | -12.1% | +12.1% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $301.11 | -12.3% | +12.3% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $64.96 | -16.6% | +16.6% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $15.37 | -17.2% | +17.2% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $8.47 | -18.6% | +18.6% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.63 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $2.43 | -22.9% | +22.9% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.06 | -23.7% | +23.7% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $102.46 | -30.5% | +30.5% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.57 | -25.6% | +38.4% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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