This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: RDW Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-22
Entry price: $8.99 Latest price: $8.62 as of 2026-10-14 Stock return since entry: -4.1% Signal return: +4.1% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2027-01-20.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated RDW a Sell because I thought the company’s backlog and revenue scale were not yet translating into positive operating cash flow. My original concern was that even with $97M of quarterly revenue and $411.2M of backlog, the business was still posting deeply negative EBITDA margins and negative free cash flow, which made the turnaround look unfinished. I also said I would want to see revenue stay above $100M for two straight quarters and margins move toward breakeven before I would reconsider that stance.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| RDW (this call) | -4.1% |
| AVAV | -19.8% |
| KTOS | -17.9% |
| LUNR | -21.8% |
| PL | -37.5% |
| RKLB | -15.2% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, following the Sell has earned 4.1%, which means the short side has worked in the direction I expected. The stock has drifted lower while the peer group has also been broadly weaker, but RDW’s move still fits my original caution that the market was paying for a turnaround that had not yet shown up in cash generation. The specific point I made about backlog and revenue scale has not been enough to offset the lack of positive operating cash flow, and the price action has not challenged that view. As of this review, the call remains Correct so far because the stock has moved in the bearish direction I wanted from a Sell.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If RDW can sustain quarterly revenue above $100M for two consecutive quarters and show a clear move toward positive operating margin, that would directly undercut the core of my thesis. I would also be forced to rethink the call if free cash flow turns positive and stays there, because that would show the business is finally converting backlog into self-funded growth. A fresh equity raise before that happens would reinforce the original bear case; the opposite sequence would weaken it materially.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.80 | +137.7% | -137.7% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $22.25 | +25.4% | -25.4% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $184.05 | +17.8% | -17.8% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $61.73 | -11.2% | +11.2% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $354.57 | -13.2% | +13.2% | Correct so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $6.31 | -15.1% | +15.1% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $127.58 | +15.4% | +15.4% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $201.23 | -18.7% | +18.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $74.87 | -23.9% | +23.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $241.41 | -24.4% | +24.4% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $291.17 | -25.6% | +25.6% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $44.82 | -26.0% | +26.0% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $8.23 | -29.5% | +29.5% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $4.73 | -39.6% | +39.6% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $194.46 | -48.9% | +48.9% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $5.83 | -33.8% | +50.7% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $9.94 | -54.5% | +54.5% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $6.21 | -56.9% | +56.9% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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