This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: HUT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-14 Checkpoint: 2026-10-14 Entry price: $98.33 Latest price: $83.61 as of 2026-10-13 Stock return since entry: -15.0% Signal return: +15.0% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated HUT a Sell because I thought the bull case depended on too many things going right at once: project delivery, financing, and a better conversion from revenue into cash. My view was that the stock was running ahead of the business until I saw positive EBITDA and a meaningful reduction in cash burn, with River Bend and the broader AI build needing to prove they could absorb the fixed cost base.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| HUT (this call) | -15.0% |
| APLD | -26.4% |
| CIFR | -46.6% |
| CORZ | -34.9% |
| IREN | -16.8% |
| WULF | -37.9% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have earned 14.97%, so the call has worked to date. The stock has fallen while the comparable names were also mostly lower, which fits a difficult peer backdrop, but HUT still moved in the direction that supported my bearish stance. The specific concern I highlighted about cash burn and the need for positive EBITDA has not been contradicted by the price action; instead, the market has continued to discount the gap between the story and the operating results implied by my original thesis. The same-month cohort has been mixed, with several other Sell calls still wrong and several others right, so HUT’s outcome looks like a case where the bearish setup has been rewarded rather than a blanket sector move.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If HUT can show sustained positive EBITDA and a clear step-down in levered free cash flow burn, that would directly undercut the core of my Sell thesis. I would also reassess if River Bend and the broader AI build keep progressing without the financing pressure I worried about, especially if revenue holds up for several quarters rather than fading. A sustained reclaim of the 200-day moving average would add to that evidence and suggest the market is no longer pricing the stock ahead of the business.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.16 | +152.5% | -152.5% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.49 | +32.4% | -32.4% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $190.76 | +22.1% | -22.1% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $9.16 | +1.9% | -1.9% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $66.90 | -3.8% | +3.8% | Correct so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $6.87 | -7.5% | +7.5% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $369.13 | -9.6% | +9.6% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $64.30 | -11.8% | +11.8% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.21 | +14.1% | +14.1% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $263.55 | -17.5% | +17.5% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $200.32 | -19.1% | +19.1% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $309.09 | -21.1% | +21.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $47.61 | -21.4% | +21.4% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $9.11 | -21.9% | +21.9% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $5.18 | -33.8% | +33.8% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $6.49 | -26.3% | +39.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $206.12 | -45.8% | +45.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $11.34 | -48.1% | +48.1% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $6.78 | -53.0% | +53.0% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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