This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: HUT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-14 Entry price: $98.33 Latest price: $87.13 as of 2026-08-27 Stock return since entry: -11.4% Signal return: +11.4% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2027-01-12.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated HUT Sell because my view was that the bull case still depended on too many things going right at once: project delivery, financing, and a cleaner conversion from revenue into cash. I also pointed to specific checkpoints — positive EBITDA, a meaningful reduction in levered free cash flow burn from the -$300.6M TTM level, and sustained revenue above the Q1 2026 level of $71M — as the evidence I wanted before I would turn more constructive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| HUT (this call) | -11.4% |
| APLD | -3.6% |
| CIFR | -15.6% |
| CORZ | -20.2% |
| IREN | +5.0% |
| WULF | -15.0% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following the Sell has worked: if I had shorted HUT at my entry price, I would be up 11.4% on the signal. That outcome is consistent with my original concern that the market was pricing in execution before the business had clearly earned it. The peer group has been mixed to weaker overall, with several comparables also down, but I do not need the whole group to fall for my call to be right; HUT has still moved in the bearish direction I expected. What I can say is that the specific thesis about cash conversion and financing has not been disproven by the price action so far, but I also have not yet seen the operating proof points I asked for.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if HUT starts showing the operating inflection I said I needed: positive EBITDA, a clear step-down in free cash flow burn, and revenue that stays above the Q1 2026 level for multiple quarters. I would also have to reconsider if River Bend and the broader AI build keep hitting milestones without added dilution or a worsening financing profile. If those metrics improve materially while the stock holds up, my bearish case would no longer be the better read.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.08 | +149.2% | -149.2% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $25.63 | +44.5% | -44.5% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.27 | +25.4% | -25.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $9.28 | +18.5% | -18.5% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.65 | +16.4% | -16.4% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.74 | +10.6% | -15.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $172.78 | +10.6% | -10.6% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $72.73 | +4.6% | -4.6% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.87 | +1.7% | -1.7% | Incorrect so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $71.16 | -2.4% | +2.4% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $233.00 | -5.9% | +5.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $292.62 | -8.4% | +8.4% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.92 | $369.71 | -9.6% | +9.6% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.28 | +14.2% | +14.2% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $51.74 | -14.8% | +14.8% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $11.43 | -20.7% | +20.7% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $309.39 | -21.0% | +21.0% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $16.77 | -23.2% | +23.2% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $251.13 | -34.0% | +34.0% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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