This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: CIFR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-08 Entry price: $21.85 Latest price: $16.02 as of 2026-08-26 Stock return since entry: -26.7% Signal return: +26.7% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2027-01-06.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated CIFR a Sell because I thought the stock was already pricing in a successful HPC ramp, while the reported revenue, cash flow, and leverage still looked like a business in transition rather than one that deserved a premium multiple. My key concern was that the site pipeline and interconnection assets were real, but the numbers had not yet shown those assets turning into stable, repeatable cash generation. I also said I would only soften that view if revenue stayed above $70M for two straight quarters and operating cash flow moved much closer to breakeven.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| CIFR (this call) | -26.7% |
| CLSK | +5.0% |
| HUT | -18.2% |
| IREN | -4.4% |
| MARA | +0.0% |
| RIOT | -0.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Sell would have earned a 26.7% gain, so the call has worked in the direction I wanted. The stock has moved lower while the peer group has been mixed to slightly higher overall, which supports my view that CIFR was not simply moving with the rest of the cohort. The part of my thesis that has held up best is the idea that the market was too optimistic about the ramp relative to the company’s still-uneven operating profile. I have not seen evidence here that the leverage-and-cash-generation concern was resolved, and that is the specific reason the bearish call has remained intact.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If CIFR can show revenue holding above $70M for two consecutive quarters and operating cash flow moving materially closer to breakeven, that would directly challenge my original thesis. I would also reconsider if the company demonstrates that the HPC ramp is translating into durable, repeatable cash generation rather than just a one-off step-up. If those operating markers improve while leverage remains heavy, I would have to admit the premium multiple was more justified than I thought.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.76 | +136.1% | -136.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $24.91 | +40.4% | -40.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.27 | +25.4% | -25.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.93 | +14.0% | -14.0% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.35 | +12.4% | -12.4% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.27 | +5.2% | -7.8% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $71.51 | +2.8% | -2.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $157.54 | +0.8% | -0.8% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.22 | -3.9% | +3.9% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $69.64 | -4.5% | +4.5% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $233.45 | -5.7% | +5.7% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $291.88 | -8.6% | +8.6% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.92 | $369.40 | -9.7% | +9.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $85.00 | -13.6% | +13.6% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.23 | +14.2% | +14.2% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $312.83 | -20.1% | +20.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $48.40 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $11.08 | -23.2% | +23.2% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $248.73 | -34.7% | +34.7% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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