This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: CAR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-06-21 Entry price: $186.28 Latest price: $145.13 as of 2026-08-25 Stock return since entry: -22.1% Signal return: +22.1% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2026-12-20.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated CAR a Sell because I thought the recovery still depended on a clean execution path that had not yet shown up in the numbers. My focus was on the balance sheet and cash generation: $27.7B of debt, only $168M of levered free cash flow, and the risk that one weak refinancing or residual-value miss could put the equity back under pressure.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| CAR (this call) | -22.1% |
| HTZ | -58.6% |
| LYFT | +22.0% |
| R | -5.7% |
| UBER | +12.0% |
| UHAL | +11.3% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that bearish call has worked: if I had shorted CAR at my entry price, I would be up about 22.1% on the signal. The stock has fallen while the peer set has been mixed to higher overall, which supports my view that CAR has not simply moved with the group. The specific concern I raised about leverage and thin free cash flow has not been disproven by the price action; instead, the market has continued to treat the recovery as fragile. I still cannot claim the thesis is fully proven, but the numbers have moved in the direction I expected for a Sell.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if CAR starts showing the operating and cash-flow durability I said was missing: quarterly EBITDA staying above $700M, levered free cash flow moving above $500M TTM, and net margin turning positive. I would also have to reconsider if operating cash flow holds comfortably above $2.5B TTM and the current ratio improves above 1.0x, because that would suggest the refinancing and liquidity risks are easing rather than building. If EBITDA slips materially below $748M again, that would reinforce the original bear case instead of disproving it.
The June 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYH | Sell | $9.37 | $10.66 | +13.8% | -13.8% | Incorrect so far |
| SOUN | Sell | $7.33 | $7.05 | -3.8% | +3.8% | Correct so far |
| BSX | Buy | $46.76 | $49.86 | +6.6% | +6.6% | Correct so far |
| AEHR | Sell | $115.30 | $95.59 | -17.1% | +17.1% | Correct so far |
| BW | Sell | $17.76 | $7.83 | -55.9% | +55.9% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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