This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: BORR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-09-06 Checkpoint: 2026-10-06 Entry price: $4.44 Latest price: $4.15 as of 2026-10-05 Stock return since entry: -6.5% Signal return: +6.5% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated BORR a sell because the latest quarter showed a sharp EBITDA break and negative free cash flow, even though the fleet-quality case was still supported by 98.7% technical utilization in 2025. My concern was that 6.1x net debt/EBITDA left too little room if dayrates softened again, and I also thought the valuation looked stretched at 3.6x EV/revenue with a -4.7% FCF yield.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| BORR (this call) | -6.5% |
| NBR | -10.8% |
| NE | -9.6% |
| RIG | -6.5% |
| TDW | -10.5% |
| VAL | -4.6% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have earned 6.5%, so the sell call has worked to date. BORR has moved lower while the peer group has also been mostly lower, which means my bearish view has not been isolated, but the stock has still gone in the direction that a sell rating needed. The part of my thesis that has held up best is the idea that the business was not yet self-funding: the market has not rewarded the fleet-quality argument enough to offset the leverage and cash-flow concerns. The one piece I would still watch closely is my own turnaround threshold, because I said I would turn more constructive only if quarterly EBITDA got back above $100M; that has not been demonstrated in the price action I have seen here.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If BORR can show a sustained recovery in the operating numbers I highlighted — especially quarterly EBITDA back above $100M and free cash flow positive for two straight quarters — my sell case would weaken materially. I would also be less confident if revenue stabilizes above roughly $250M per quarter and the balance-sheet pressure starts to ease, because that would suggest the recent break was temporary rather than structural. Until then, the combination of high leverage and weak cash generation remains the key risk that could keep the bearish call intact.
The September 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASX | Sell | $41.63 | $47.53 | +14.2% | -14.2% | Incorrect so far |
| TLN | Sell | $294.54 | $331.87 | +12.7% | -12.7% | Incorrect so far |
| RXT | Sell | $3.49 | $3.90 | +11.7% | -11.7% | Incorrect so far |
| ICHR | Sell | $59.42 | $63.33 | +6.6% | -6.6% | Incorrect so far |
| PL | Sell | $16.42 | $17.36 | +5.7% | -5.7% | Incorrect so far |
| SIMO | Sell | $269.00 | $282.45 | +5.0% | -5.0% | Incorrect so far |
| ALAB | Sell | $351.31 | $362.34 | +3.1% | -3.1% | Incorrect so far |
| ATI | Sell | $189.65 | $193.09 | +1.8% | -1.8% | Incorrect so far |
| DOCN | Sell | $136.29 | $137.23 | +0.7% | -0.7% | Incorrect so far |
| CCJ | Sell | $88.07 | $87.47 | -0.7% | +0.7% | Correct so far |
| CHTR | Sell | $117.55 | $107.77 | -8.3% | +8.3% | Correct so far |
| CUE | Sell | $26.96 | $24.36 | -9.6% | +9.6% | Correct so far |
| ACHR | Sell | $5.26 | $4.72 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| LAR | Sell | $6.70 | $5.60 | -16.4% | +16.4% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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