This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: ASX Rating: Sell Published: 2026-09-18 Checkpoint: 2026-10-18 Entry price: $41.63 Latest price: $39.53 as of 2026-10-16 Stock return since entry: -5.0% Signal return: +5.0% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated ASX a Sell because I thought the company was still growing into a cash-conversion problem: revenue growth and operating cash flow were strong, but levered free cash flow was deeply negative. I also pointed to a rich valuation, with a 20.7x forward P/E and a -99.5% FCF yield, and said I would become less bearish only if free cash flow turned positive for two to three quarters.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| ASX (this call) | -5.0% |
| AMAT | -7.9% |
| AMKR | -16.9% |
| KLAC | -6.4% |
| TSM | -5.1% |
| UMC | -19.5% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have earned about 5.0%, which means the Sell call has worked to date. The stock has moved lower while the peer group has also been mostly lower, so ASX has not been an outlier on price alone, but the direction still supports my bearish stance. The specific concern I highlighted — that the market was paying for a recovery before cash generation had actually normalized — has not been disproven by the price action. The call is still being validated by the fact that the stock has not rewarded the rich valuation and negative free-cash-flow setup I emphasized.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be less bearish if free cash flow turns positive and stays positive for two to three quarters, because that would directly address the core weakness in my thesis. I would also reconsider if the company can sustain the revenue growth and margin improvement I cited while the valuation remains elevated, since that would make the recovery case more credible. If the stock starts to recover without any evidence that cash conversion has improved, that would also weaken my original argument less than a real FCF turnaround would.
The September 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Buy | $117.26 | $102.83 | -12.3% | -12.3% | Incorrect so far |
| BORR | Sell | $4.44 | $4.54 | +2.3% | -2.3% | Incorrect so far |
| ATI | Sell | $189.65 | $185.59 | -2.1% | +2.1% | Correct so far |
| CHTR | Sell | $117.55 | $110.11 | -6.3% | +6.3% | Correct so far |
| PL | Sell | $16.42 | $13.56 | -17.4% | +17.4% | Correct so far |
| ALAB | Sell | $351.31 | $285.82 | -18.6% | +18.6% | Correct so far |
| RXT | Sell | $3.49 | $2.83 | -19.1% | +19.1% | Correct so far |
| SIMO | Sell | $269.00 | $211.30 | -21.4% | +21.4% | Correct so far |
| DOCN | Sell | $136.29 | $98.69 | -27.6% | +27.6% | Correct so far |
| ICHR | Sell | $59.42 | $42.11 | -29.1% | +29.1% | Correct so far |
| LAR | Sell | $6.70 | $4.63 | -30.9% | +30.9% | Correct so far |
| CUE | Sell | $26.96 | $16.71 | -38.0% | +38.0% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Technology
How are our Technology calls doing overall, and where does ASX sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Sell | 2026-07-08 | +58.9% |
| AEHR | Sell | 2026-06-18 | +47.4% |
| SOUN | Sell | 2026-06-14 | +35.6% |
| NVTS | Sell | 2026-10-03 | +32.4% |
| SMTC | Strong Sell | 2026-10-13 | +31.3% |
| AMKR | Sell | 2026-07-27 | +31.0% |
| ONTO | Sell | 2026-07-14 | +30.9% |
| ICHR | Sell | 2026-09-27 | +29.1% |
Across sectors, Industrials led the league table with a +23.7% average signal return and a 92% hit rate, while Communication Services was also strong at +17.4% with a 100% hit rate. Technology, our focus sector, posted +15.7% on 24 calls with a 92% hit rate, and its best call was CIFR +58.9% while its worst was NLST -135.2%. At the lower end, Energy lagged at +2.5% with a 50% hit rate, and Healthcare was +11.0% with a 57% hit rate. Thin sectors were not ranked, and Utilities, Basic Materials, and Consumer Cyclical each had fewer than 3 calls? no, each had 3 calls, so they are not thin.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 13 | 92% | +23.7% | BW +74.0% | CAR -12.3% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +17.4% | SPHR +29.7% | CHTR +6.3% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.1% | FLNC +59.8% | TLN -6.9% |
| Basic Materials | 3 | 100% | +16.8% | LAR +30.9% | GFI +5.4% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +15.9% | MARA +35.5% | BMNR -22.1% |
| Technology | 24 | 92% | +15.7% | CIFR +58.9% | NLST -135.2% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.7% | PENN +19.5% | RRGB +7.4% |
| Healthcare | 7 | 57% | +11.0% | CUE +38.0% | SDGR -29.9% |
| Energy | 4 | 50% | +2.5% | TPL +14.0% | VNOM -8.0% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 100% | +18.9% | SRG +34.8% | SKYH +2.9% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +7.4% | NXE +19.5% | FISV -4.8% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +41.5% (2) | +1.0% (7) | +18.8% (3) | +20.2% (6) | +18.3% (6) |
| Industrials | +74.0% (1) | +35.1% (5) | +7.2% (2) | +2.4% (3) | +18.4% (2) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +8.8% (5) | +38.0% (1) | — |
| Communication Services | — | +17.1% (1) | +19.5% (2) | +6.3% (1) | +24.6% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +14.8% (3) | — | — | +19.0% (1) |
| Energy | — | +14.0% (1) | -8.0% (1) | -2.3% (1) | +6.4% (1) |
| Utilities | — | +59.8% (1) | -1.6% (1) | — | -6.9% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +14.3% (1) | — | +30.9% (1) | +5.4% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.7% (3) | — | — |
| Real Estate | +2.9% (1) | — | +34.8% (1) | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +19.5% (1) | — | -4.8% (1) |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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