This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: RCAT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-22
Entry price: $7.83 Latest price: $7.80 as of 2026-09-14 Stock return since entry: -0.4% Signal return: +0.4% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2027-01-20.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated RCAT a Sell because I thought the core tension was unresolved: the company had a real defense qualification moat and the SRR program was driving revenue, but the reported economics were still far too weak. My focus was on the TTM operating margin of -176%, net margin of -138%, and FCF margin of -163.4%, which told me the business had not yet turned its strategic position into durable cash generation.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| RCAT (this call) | -0.4% |
| AVAV | +2.0% |
| DPRO | +28.1% |
| KTOS | -0.6% |
| ONDS | -9.6% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that call has held up: if I had shorted RCAT at my entry price, I would be up about 0.4% on the position, which is a small but real win for the Sell. The stock has been roughly flat, so this is not a dramatic move, but it does mean the bearish thesis has not been disproven by price action. The peer set has been mixed to higher overall, with several comparables up meaningfully while a few have slipped, and RCAT has not shown the kind of decisive strength that would have challenged my concern about weak unit economics. What has been validated is the specific margin argument I made; what has not been tested enough yet is whether the SRR ramp can actually translate into sustained profitability and cash flow.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I could still be wrong if RCAT starts showing the operating inflection I said I needed to see: quarterly revenue staying above $20M for two straight quarters, gross margin moving materially above 7.5%, and operating margin turning positive. If the company can do that while keeping cash burn under control, then my Sell would no longer fit the evidence. I would also have to reconsider if another financing arrives before operating cash flow turns positive, because that would confirm dilution is still doing the heavy lifting.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $4.72 | +93.4% | -93.4% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $25.76 | +45.2% | -45.2% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.49 | +16.7% | -16.7% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $170.18 | +8.9% | -8.9% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.97 | +7.3% | -7.3% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $71.64 | +3.0% | -3.0% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.50 | -1.5% | +1.5% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.51 | -3.4% | +5.1% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $91.13 | -7.3% | +7.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $222.91 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $365.27 | -10.5% | +10.5% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $63.98 | -12.2% | +12.2% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $132.61 | +19.9% | +19.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $250.13 | -21.7% | +21.7% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $47.12 | -22.2% | +22.2% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.64 | -28.4% | +28.4% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $271.75 | -30.6% | +30.6% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $9.41 | -34.7% | +34.7% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $227.70 | -40.2% | +40.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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