This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: HUT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-14 Checkpoint: 2026-08-14 Entry price: $98.33 Latest price: $85.44 as of 2026-08-14 Stock return since entry: -13.1% Signal return: +13.1% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated HUT a Sell because I thought the bull case still depended on too many things going right at once: project delivery, financing, and a better conversion of revenue into cash. My key concern was that I had not yet seen positive EBITDA or a meaningful reduction in cash burn, so I felt the stock was running ahead of the business.
I also pointed to a specific threshold: if River Bend and the broader AI build started producing positive EBITDA and free cash flow, and if levered free cash flow burn came down from the roughly -$300.6M TTM level, I would reconsider that bearish view.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| HUT (this call) | -13.1% |
| APLD | -14.7% |
| CIFR | -26.5% |
| CORZ | -27.3% |
| IREN | -4.6% |
| WULF | -24.5% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, the call has worked: if I had shorted HUT at my entry price, I would be up about 13.1% over this first month. That is consistent with my original concern that the market was pricing in execution before the cash flow and EBITDA picture had actually improved.
The peer set has also been broadly weak, with most of the comparable names down over the same stretch, so HUT’s decline is not an isolated move against a uniformly strong group. What matters for my thesis, though, is that the specific risks I named have not been disproven yet: I still have not seen evidence here that positive EBITDA, lower cash burn, or a cleaner financing path has arrived.
Because this is only month one, I would not overstate the result, but the original bearish logic has held up so far rather than being contradicted by the price action.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I could still be wrong if HUT shows a sustained step-up in EBITDA and free cash flow, especially if River Bend and the broader AI build start contributing enough to pull levered free cash flow materially away from the current burn profile. I would also have to rethink the call if revenue stays above the Q1 2026 level for several quarters and the stock reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average, because that would suggest the business is finally absorbing its fixed cost base.
If financing pressure eases without additional dilution and cash burn falls meaningfully, that would directly challenge the core of my Sell thesis.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.79 | +178.3% | -178.3% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $23.85 | +34.5% | -34.5% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.30 | +14.5% | -14.5% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.95 | +7.0% | -7.0% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.15 | +3.9% | -5.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.25 | +5.4% | -5.4% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $161.65 | +3.5% | -3.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $66.17 | -4.9% | +4.9% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $67.34 | -7.6% | +7.6% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.92 | $365.50 | -10.6% | +10.6% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $10.32 | -11.6% | +11.6% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $217.95 | -12.0% | +12.0% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.59 | +14.5% | +14.5% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $257.94 | -19.2% | +19.2% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $46.01 | -24.2% | +24.2% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $286.96 | -26.7% | +26.7% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $10.55 | -26.9% | +26.9% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $14.86 | -32.0% | +32.0% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $236.80 | -37.8% | +37.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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