This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: MTZ Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-05 Entry price: $380.63 Latest price: $248.73 as of 2026-08-26 Stock return since entry: -34.7% Signal return: +34.7% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2027-01-03.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated MTZ a Sell because I thought the bull case still depended on margin expansion and better cash conversion that had not shown up in the numbers. My focus was on the weak 0.1% TTM free cash flow margin, the 12.8% gross margin, and the idea that policy, tariff, and project-timing risks could keep delaying the conversion of revenue into shareholder cash. I also said I would only get more constructive if operating margin moved materially above 3.7% and levered free cash flow turned meaningfully positive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| MTZ (this call) | -34.7% |
| DY | -29.1% |
| EME | -3.1% |
| FIX | -10.5% |
| PWR | -7.7% |
| STRL | -31.1% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that bearish call has worked: if I had shorted MTZ at my entry price, I would be up 34.7% on the signal. The stock has fallen sharply while the peer group has also been mostly lower, which tells me the broader contractor complex has been weak, but MTZ has still moved in the direction my Sell thesis needed. The specific concern I raised about cash conversion has not been disproven by the data I was using at the time, and the original 0.1% FCF margin remains the key reason I was cautious. I do not have evidence here that operating margin has cleared the 3.7% threshold or that free cash flow has turned meaningfully positive, so the core thesis is still intact for now.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a sustained improvement in the exact metrics I flagged: operating margin moving clearly above 3.7% and levered free cash flow turning meaningfully positive, not just one quarter of noise. If revenue stays around or above the $3.8B level while EBITDA and cash conversion improve together, that would weaken my argument that the business was still failing to turn project activity into shareholder cash. A reversal in those trends, especially if the 0.1% TTM FCF margin starts expanding materially, would force me to reconsider the Sell.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.76 | +136.1% | -136.1% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $24.91 | +40.4% | -40.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.27 | +25.4% | -25.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $8.93 | +14.0% | -14.0% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.35 | +12.4% | -12.4% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.27 | +5.2% | -7.8% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $71.51 | +2.8% | -2.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $157.54 | +0.8% | -0.8% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.22 | -3.9% | +3.9% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $69.64 | -4.5% | +4.5% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $233.45 | -5.7% | +5.7% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $291.88 | -8.6% | +8.6% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.92 | $369.40 | -9.7% | +9.7% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $85.00 | -13.6% | +13.6% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.23 | +14.2% | +14.2% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $312.83 | -20.1% | +20.1% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $48.40 | -20.3% | +20.3% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $11.08 | -23.2% | +23.2% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $16.02 | -26.7% | +26.7% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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