This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: AES Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-01 Checkpoint: 2026-11-01 Entry price: $14.54 Latest price: $14.83 as of 2026-10-30 Stock return since entry: +2.0% Signal return: -2.0% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Previous checkpoint: our 2-month review (2026-10-01) was incorrect (stock return +1.4% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
No original thesis text was available.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| AES (this call) | +2.0% |
| BEP | -13.9% |
| CEG | -4.0% |
| DUK | +3.4% |
| NEE | -2.6% |
| SO | +1.7% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Entry $14.54, latest $14.83, stock return +2.0%. Verdict: Incorrect so far.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $27.14 | +56.0% | -56.0% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $47.68 | +14.4% | -14.4% | Incorrect so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $277.61 | +6.4% | -6.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $9.11 | -4.2% | +4.2% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $200.15 | +6.2% | +6.2% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.49 | -7.0% | +7.0% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $69.06 | -11.3% | +11.3% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $15.89 | -14.4% | +14.4% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $6.53 | -15.9% | +15.9% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $171.55 | -18.5% | +18.5% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.33 | -19.4% | +19.4% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $8.27 | -20.5% | +20.5% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $5.12 | -24.6% | +24.6% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $109.14 | -25.9% | +25.9% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.05 | -30.3% | +30.3% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.48 | $239.11 | -30.4% | +30.4% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.64 | -22.3% | +33.4% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $0.86 | -38.1% | +38.1% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Utilities
How are our Utilities calls doing overall, and where does AES sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLNC | Sell | 2026-07-23 | +60.3% |
| TLN | Sell | 2026-10-04 | -3.4% |
Among sectors with at least 3 directional calls, Industrials has done best, with an average signal return of +23.8% across 14 calls and a 79% hit rate. Healthcare has done worst, at +4.2% across 10 calls and a 60% hit rate. Utilities, the sector of this call, stands at +18.3% across 3 calls. Samples are small and sector gaps can reverse quickly, so we read this as a scoreboard, not a forecast.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 14 | 79% | +23.8% | BW +76.0% | CAR -7.9% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +21.6% | MARA +42.0% | BMNR -13.8% |
| Technology | 24 | 88% | +18.7% | CIFR +66.6% | NLST -159.0% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +18.3% | FLNC +60.3% | TLN -3.4% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +15.9% | SPHR +25.9% | CHTR +5.2% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +14.4% | OI +24.6% | RRGB +4.2% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +13.2% | LAR +39.1% | GFI -7.8% |
| Energy | 6 | 50% | +4.2% | TPL +19.1% | VNOM -14.4% |
| Healthcare | 10 | 60% | +4.2% | STXS +38.1% | SDGR -56.0% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +13.9% | SRG +33.4% | SKYH -5.5% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +5.1% | NXE +20.5% | FISV -10.2% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +47.4% (2) | -1.1% (7) | +21.9% (3) | +24.6% (6) | +24.7% (6) |
| Industrials | +76.0% (1) | +36.2% (5) | +6.0% (2) | +7.6% (3) | +14.1% (3) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +6.0% (5) | +22.6% (1) | -1.9% (3) |
| Energy | — | +19.1% (1) | -14.4% (1) | +9.5% (1) | +3.7% (3) |
| Communication Services | — | +23.2% (1) | +16.5% (2) | +5.2% (1) | +18.3% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +22.6% (3) | — | — | +18.4% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +14.6% (1) | — | +39.1% (1) | -0.4% (2) |
| Utilities | — | +60.3% (1) | -2.0% (1) | — | -3.4% (1) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +14.4% (3) | — | — |
| Real Estate | -5.5% (1) | — | +33.4% (1) | — | — |
| Unclassified | — | — | +20.5% (1) | — | -10.2% (1) |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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