This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: ALAB Rating: Sell Published: 2026-09-28 Checkpoint: 2026-10-28 Entry price: $351.31 Latest price: $286.69 as of 2026-10-27 Stock return since entry: -18.4% Signal return: +18.4% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that ALAB was already priced for a long AI ramp, even though Q2 2026 revenue had reached $392.4M and was growing 104.5% year over year. I also flagged two specific risks: a customer that accounted for more than 70.0% of 2025 revenue, and a valuation that still sat at 51.6x EV/Revenue with only a 0.2% FCF yield. My view was that I would only get more constructive if revenue stayed above $400M and cash generation improved meaningfully.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| ALAB (this call) | -18.4% |
| ANET | -8.5% |
| AVGO | -0.8% |
| CRDO | -12.0% |
| MRVL | -1.2% |
| NVDA | -4.8% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Over this tracking window, a short position would have earned 18.4%, which means the Sell call has worked in the direction I expected. The stock’s decline also fits the original valuation argument: the market was paying for a cleaner cash-conversion path than the company had shown, and that premium has not held up in price. The peer group has also been mostly lower, but ALAB’s move is consistent with the broader weakness rather than being an outlier that would undermine the thesis. What matters most is that the specific setup I highlighted — rich valuation against a still-concentrated customer base and only a 0.2% FCF yield — has not been disproven by the price action.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If revenue pushes back above $400M and stays there while free cash flow yield moves materially above 1.0%, I would have to revisit the bearish call. I would also be less confident if the customer concentration risk eases in a durable way, because that was one of the clearest reasons I thought the multiple was vulnerable. A sustained re-rating higher without those improvements would be the clearest sign that my valuation-first thesis was too cautious.
The September 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Buy | $117.26 | $102.21 | -12.8% | -12.8% | Incorrect so far |
| ASX | Sell | $41.63 | $42.06 | +1.0% | -1.0% | Incorrect so far |
| BORR | Sell | $4.44 | $4.09 | -7.9% | +7.9% | Correct so far |
| CHTR | Sell | $117.55 | $104.93 | -10.7% | +10.7% | Correct so far |
| PL | Sell | $16.42 | $14.49 | -11.8% | +11.8% | Correct so far |
| ATI | Sell | $189.65 | $166.14 | -12.4% | +12.4% | Correct so far |
| RXT | Sell | $3.49 | $2.87 | -17.8% | +17.8% | Correct so far |
| DOCN | Sell | $136.29 | $106.39 | -21.9% | +21.9% | Correct so far |
| SIMO | Sell | $269.00 | $204.17 | -24.1% | +24.1% | Correct so far |
| ICHR | Sell | $59.42 | $40.75 | -31.4% | +31.4% | Correct so far |
| LAR | Sell | $6.70 | $4.58 | -31.6% | +31.6% | Correct so far |
| CUE | Sell | $26.96 | $18.32 | -32.0% | +32.0% | Correct so far |
Sector Scorecard: Technology
How are our Technology calls doing overall, and where does ALAB sit among them?
| Peer call | Rating | Published | Signal return |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR | Sell | 2026-07-08 | +61.2% |
| AEHR | Sell | 2026-06-18 | +44.5% |
| SOUN | Sell | 2026-06-14 | +40.4% |
| INOD | Strong Sell | 2026-10-10 | +38.0% |
| AMKR | Sell | 2026-07-27 | +34.1% |
| ONTO | Sell | 2026-07-14 | +32.9% |
| ICHR | Sell | 2026-09-27 | +31.4% |
| LRCX | Sell | 2026-08-16 | +29.9% |
Across sectors, Industrials led with a 86% hit rate and +22.0% average signal return, while Communication Services was also strong at 100% and +17.2%, and Technology posted a 75% hit rate with +12.2%. The weakest cumulative showing was Energy at 60% and +4.2%, with Healthcare at 56% and +5.5% also trailing the pack. Our best call was BW at +74.4% in Industrials, and our worst was NLST at -171.3% in Technology. Thin samples in Utilities, Consumer Cyclical, Financial Services, Basic Materials, Real Estate, and Unclassified should be treated cautiously.
Sector League Table
| Sector | Calls | Hit rate | Avg signal return | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 14 | 86% | +22.0% | BW +74.4% | LUNR -14.8% |
| Utilities | 3 | 33% | +17.3% | FLNC +58.3% | TLN -4.2% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 100% | +17.2% | LUMN +23.5% | CHTR +10.7% |
| Financial Services | 4 | 75% | +14.2% | MARA +39.2% | BMNR -21.9% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 3 | 100% | +13.1% | PENN +20.1% | OI +5.3% |
| Technology | 24 | 75% | +12.2% | CIFR +61.2% | NLST -171.3% |
| Basic Materials | 4 | 75% | +9.8% | LAR +31.6% | USAR -4.6% |
| Healthcare | 9 | 56% | +5.5% | CUE +32.0% | SDGR -53.6% |
| Energy | 5 | 60% | +4.2% | TPL +19.1% | VNOM -11.5% |
| Real Estate* | 2 | 50% | +12.6% | SRG +29.9% | SKYH -4.6% |
| Unclassified* | 2 | 50% | +5.5% | NXE +15.4% | FISV -4.5% |
\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.
Sector by Publish Month
| Sector | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +42.5% (2) | -7.9% (7) | +18.2% (3) | +18.8% (6) | +16.1% (6) |
| Industrials | +74.4% (1) | +35.5% (5) | +10.3% (2) | +3.8% (3) | +8.2% (3) |
| Healthcare | -5.1% (1) | — | +6.0% (5) | +32.0% (1) | -3.8% (2) |
| Energy | — | +19.1% (1) | -11.5% (1) | +7.9% (1) | +2.7% (2) |
| Communication Services | — | +18.7% (1) | +16.6% (2) | +10.7% (1) | +23.5% (1) |
| Financial Services | — | +16.3% (3) | — | — | +8.0% (1) |
| Basic Materials | — | +11.9% (1) | — | +31.6% (1) | -2.2% (2) |
| Consumer Cyclical | — | — | +13.1% (3) | — | — |
| Utilities | — | +58.3% (1) | -2.2% (1) | — | -4.2% (1) |
| Unclassified | — | — | +15.4% (1) | — | -4.5% (1) |
| Real Estate | -4.6% (1) | — | +29.9% (1) | — | — |
Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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