The Scorecard: 2 Month Update: SRG Strong Sell — Correct so far

This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.

Ticker: SRG Rating: Strong Sell Published: 2026-08-22 Checkpoint: 2026-10-22 Entry price: $2.11 Latest price: $1.64 as of 2026-10-21 Stock return since entry: -22.3% Signal return: +33.4% Verdict: Correct so far

This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.

Previous checkpoint: our 1-month review (2026-09-22) was correct (stock return -11.8% since entry). Each monthly review is judged on its own date, so the verdict can change from one month to the next.

Read the original LF0 analysis

What I Said

I argued that SRG was a strong sell because the Plan of Sale still carried execution risk, even though the balance sheet had a liquidity cushion with a 6.2x current ratio and $48.4M of cash. My core concern was that the company was still burning cash, with levered free cash flow at -$23.3M TTM, while the stock was still priced at 9.7x EV/Revenue despite negative EBITDA. I said I would only get more constructive if operating cash flow turned positive and asset sales accelerated.

Peer Comparison

Why It’s Working (Or Not)

Over this tracking window, following the strong sell would have earned 33.4%, which means the bearish call has worked in the direction I expected. SRG itself is down 22.3% since I wrote it, and the peer group was also mostly lower, which fits the idea that my thesis was not just a random one-off move but part of a broader weakness in the comparable names. The specific concern I highlighted — that liquidation value might not outrun cash burn — has been supported by the price action, while the liquidity cushion I cited has not been enough to prevent the shares from sliding. The call is still active, but the evidence to date has favored the short side rather than the long side.

What Could Still Prove Me Wrong

I would be wrong if SRG starts showing sustained positive operating cash flow and the asset-sale program clearly accelerates enough to change the market’s view of liquidation value. I would also reassess if the company begins closing properties at materially stronger terms than expected, because that would weaken my execution-risk argument. If the shares stabilize and the balance sheet story starts to dominate the cash-burn story, that would be the clearest sign that my thesis is losing force.

The August 2026 Cohort

Other directional calls published the same month:

Sector Scorecard: Real Estate

How are our Real Estate calls doing overall, and where does SRG sit among them?

We did not have a ranked Real Estate book because it was thin with 2 calls, so we focus on the broader league table. Industrials led on average signal return at +24.4% with a 92% hit rate, while Communication Services was the only sector with a 100% hit rate and +16.4% average return; Technology was the largest book at 24 calls and posted +11.3% with a 79% hit rate. The weakest average return among the ranked sectors was Energy at +4.2%, and the lowest hit rate was Utilities at 33%, though Utilities was thin with 3 calls. The best single call was BW +73.9% in Industrials, and the worst was NLST -151.6% in Technology.

Sector League Table

\* Fewer than 3 calls: not ranked.

Sector by Publish Month

Each cell: average signal return to date of the calls published that month (calls in brackets). Signal return is direction-adjusted, so a positive number means our call is right.

Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.