This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: SRG Rating: Strong Sell Published: 2026-08-22 Checkpoint: 2026-09-22 Entry price: $2.11 Latest price: $1.86 as of 2026-09-21 Stock return since entry: -11.8% Signal return: +17.8% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that SRG was a strong sell because the Plan of Sale still carried execution risk, even though the company had a liquidity cushion with a 6.2x current ratio and $48.4M of cash. My main concern was that the $-23.3M of levered free cash flow would keep burning through that cushion faster than asset sales could replenish it, especially with valuation still at 9.7x EV/Revenue despite negative EBITDA.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| SRG (this call) | -11.8% |
| BFS | -11.5% |
| CTO | -5.9% |
| GTY | -12.1% |
| SPG | -6.1% |
| TRNO | -3.6% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my strong sell has worked: the stock is down from my entry, which means a short position would be up 17.8% over the review window. That outcome is consistent with my original thesis that the cash burn and execution risk around the sale program were the real pressure points, not the existence of assets to sell. The peer group has also been mostly lower over the same stretch, so SRG has not been an isolated move, but the key point is that SRG still moved in the direction my bearish call needed. What I can say with confidence is that the specific risks I highlighted — negative free cash flow and the need for asset sales to outrun burn — have not been disproven by the price action so far.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if SRG starts showing sustained positive operating cash flow and the asset-sale cadence clearly accelerates enough to reduce the balance-sheet pressure I was worried about. I would also reconsider if the company begins closing properties at materially stronger values than expected, because that would suggest the liquidation process is creating more equity value than I assumed. If those two things happen together, the core execution-risk thesis behind my strong sell would be weakened.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $30.24 | +73.8% | -73.8% | Incorrect so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $97.83 | +25.6% | -25.6% | Incorrect so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $3.27 | +3.8% | -3.8% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.83 | +0.8% | -0.8% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $41.72 | +0.1% | -0.1% | Incorrect so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $145.14 | -1.5% | +1.5% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.36 | -2.2% | +2.2% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.62 | -4.4% | +4.4% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $201.15 | -4.4% | +4.4% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $246.93 | -5.4% | +5.4% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.80 | -5.8% | +5.8% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.55 | -6.1% | +6.1% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $201.48 | +6.9% | +6.9% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $7.21 | -7.1% | +7.1% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $6.09 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.84 | $302.28 | -12.1% | +12.1% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $16.13 | -13.1% | +13.1% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.98 | -14.3% | +14.3% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.01 | -26.3% | +26.3% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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