This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: CAR Rating: Buy Published: 2026-06-21 Checkpoint: 2026-09-21 Entry price: $186.28 Latest price: $117.71 as of 2026-09-18 Stock return since entry: -36.8% Signal return: -36.8% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 3-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated CAR a buy because I thought the company’s cash generation and margins could justify a higher equity value, even with a heavy balance sheet. My core support was the 7.2B of TTM levered free cash flow and a 26.3% FCF yield, while my main concern was the 29.1B debt load and 18.6x net debt/EBITDA. I also said I would want to see free cash flow stay above 7B for two quarters before getting more confident.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| CAR (this call) | -36.8% |
| HTZ | -64.3% |
| LYFT | +7.2% |
| R | -11.2% |
| UBER | -0.5% |
| UHAL | +1.5% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my buy signal has lost 36.8%, so the call has not worked. The original thesis has not been validated by the market: the equity has fallen sharply, and I have not yet seen evidence that the cash-flow story has been strong enough to offset the leverage over this window. The peer set has been mixed, with some names up and some down, which tells me CAR’s decline is not just a broad move across the group; it has underperformed the more stable names in the set while also falling alongside other challenged operators. At this point, the specific idea that 7.2B of levered free cash flow and a 26.3% FCF yield would give me enough margin of safety has not translated into a positive outcome for the stock.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If free cash flow stays above 7B for the next two quarters, that would still support the part of my thesis that cash generation can carry the equity despite leverage. I would also need to see EBITDA hold above the 786M level I cited, because a drop back below that would reinforce the balance-sheet risk I flagged. If operating margin slips materially from the 15.0% area or refinancing pressure starts to worsen, that would further confirm that my buy case was too optimistic.
The June 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYH | Sell | $9.37 | $10.07 | +7.5% | -7.5% | Incorrect so far |
| BSX | Buy | $46.76 | $43.34 | -7.3% | -7.3% | Incorrect so far |
| AEHR | Sell | $115.30 | $93.49 | -18.9% | +18.9% | Correct so far |
| SOUN | Sell | $7.33 | $5.93 | -19.1% | +19.1% | Correct so far |
| BW | Sell | $17.76 | $7.36 | -58.6% | +58.6% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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