This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: TTWO Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-28 Entry price: $247.62 Latest price: $233.00 as of 2026-08-27 Stock return since entry: -5.9% Signal return: +5.9% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2027-01-26.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated TTWO a Sell because I thought the stock was already pricing in a successful Grand Theft Auto VI cycle while the reported business still showed only 2.3% operating margin, 11.8% EBITDA margin, and negative net income. My view was that the valuation was asking investors to trust a margin step-up that had not yet appeared in the run rate, even though the franchise base and balance sheet were solid.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| TTWO (this call) | -5.9% |
| EA | +0.0% |
| NTES | -4.1% |
| OTGLY | +1.9% |
| TCEHY | +0.7% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that bearish call has worked: if I had shorted TTWO at my entry price, I would be up about 5.9% on the signal. The stock has drifted lower while the peer group has been mixed to slightly higher overall, which supports my view that TTWO has not been moving in lockstep with the comparable names. The specific concern I highlighted — that the market was paying for a GTA VI-driven margin expansion before the numbers showed it — has not been disproven yet. I still have not seen evidence that the reported operating margin has moved into the high single digits or that quarterly EBITDA has cleared the $786M level I said would make me more constructive.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a real pre-launch or launch-driven step-up in profitability: quarterly EBITDA above $786M and operating margin moving into the high single digits, not just a one-off revenue pop. If the November 19, 2026 release translates into sustained margin improvement and free cash flow stays above the 21.8% margin I cited, then my Sell thesis would be weakened materially. I would also be wrong if the business keeps showing only low-margin execution despite the launch, because that would mean the valuation concern was justified.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.08 | +149.2% | -149.2% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $25.63 | +44.5% | -44.5% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.27 | +25.4% | -25.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $9.28 | +18.5% | -18.5% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.65 | +16.4% | -16.4% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.74 | +10.6% | -15.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $172.78 | +10.6% | -10.6% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $72.73 | +4.6% | -4.6% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.87 | +1.7% | -1.7% | Incorrect so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $71.16 | -2.4% | +2.4% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $292.62 | -8.4% | +8.4% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.92 | $369.71 | -9.6% | +9.6% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $87.13 | -11.4% | +11.4% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.28 | +14.2% | +14.2% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $51.74 | -14.8% | +14.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $19.87 | $16.77 | -15.6% | +15.6% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $11.43 | -20.7% | +20.7% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $309.39 | -21.0% | +21.0% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $251.13 | -34.0% | +34.0% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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