This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: QUBT Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-24 Checkpoint: 2026-09-24 Entry price: $7.43 Latest price: $8.96 as of 2026-09-21 Stock return since entry: +20.6% Signal return: -20.6% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated QUBT a Sell because I thought its room-temperature photonics stack was still not translating into durable cash generation. I pointed to Q1 2026 revenue of $3.7M as evidence of some operating progress, but I focused on the much weaker TTM operating margin of -556.8% and free cash flow margin of -931.3% as proof that the business was still far from self-funding. I also said I wanted to see revenue stay above $3M per quarter and gross margin turn positive before I would get more constructive.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| QUBT (this call) | +20.6% |
| IONQ | +34.3% |
| QBTS | +6.5% |
| RGTI | +16.0% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, the short side has not worked: if I had shorted QUBT at my entry price, I would be down about 20.6% after two months. That means the market has moved against my Sell call even though my core concern about cash generation has not yet been disproven by the numbers I cited. The peer set has also been mostly higher over the same stretch, so QUBT’s strength has not been an isolated move against a weak group. At this point, the specific thesis that the company would need to show repeatable revenue above $3M per quarter and better margins has not been validated, but the price action has clearly not rewarded my bearish timing.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a continuation of the current revenue run rate with gross margin turning positive and operating cash flow improving materially from the -$35.3M TTM level. If QUBT can keep quarterly revenue above $3M for the next two quarters without another step down in losses, that would directly challenge my view that the business is still too dependent on one-off progress. I would also be wrong if the Luminar acquisition and AZ Chips Facility start showing up in durable customer demand rather than just headline revenue.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $5.10 | +109.0% | -109.0% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $28.25 | +59.2% | -59.2% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.60 | +29.0% | -29.0% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $13.28 | +13.8% | -13.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $175.23 | +12.1% | -12.1% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $76.38 | +9.8% | -9.8% | Incorrect so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $103.42 | +5.2% | -5.2% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.79 | -0.2% | +0.3% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $68.85 | -5.6% | +5.6% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $366.80 | -10.2% | +10.2% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $6.95 | -11.2% | +11.2% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $18.90 | -13.5% | +13.5% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $275.98 | -13.6% | +13.6% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $52.19 | -13.9% | +13.9% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $209.92 | -15.2% | +15.2% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $129.10 | +16.7% | +16.7% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $288.45 | -26.3% | +26.3% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $222.90 | -41.4% | +41.4% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.39 | -48.8% | +48.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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