This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: NLST Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-25 Checkpoint: 2026-09-25 Entry price: $2.44 Latest price: $5.58 as of 2026-09-25 Stock return since entry: +128.7% Signal return: -128.7% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated NLST a sell because I thought the market was pricing in cleaner cash conversion than the company had actually delivered. My original case leaned on the fact that Q1 2026 revenue reached $104.9M and EBITDA turned positive at $8.6M, but I argued that the more important test was whether that improvement showed up in cash, since operating cash flow was still -$15.5M TTM and valuation was already rich at 5.3x EV/revenue and 48.7x EV/EBITDA.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| NLST (this call) | +128.7% |
| MU | +20.0% |
| SNDK | +38.8% |
| STX | +12.1% |
| WDC | -8.6% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my sell call has not worked: the stock has risen sharply, which means a short position would have lost money over the review window. The peer group has been mixed to higher overall, so NLST’s move has not been an isolated collapse that would have supported my bearish setup; instead, the stock has moved in a way that leaves my valuation-and-cash-conversion thesis unvalidated. The specific point I emphasized most — that revenue above $100M and positive EBITDA still needed to translate into self-funding cash flow — has not been proven right by the price action, and I do not have evidence here that operating cash flow turned positive. On the information I have, the call is still incorrect so far, because the market has not rewarded the cash-conversion skepticism I built the sell around.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be proved wrong if NLST keeps quarterly revenue above $100M, holds EBITDA positive, and turns operating cash flow positive for two straight quarters, because that would directly support the improvement I said I needed to see. I would also be wrong if the SK hynix supply agreement is renewed on acceptable terms and the company continues to convert that revenue base into cash rather than just accounting earnings. If instead operating cash flow stays negative or revenue slips back materially below the $100M level, that would reinforce my original concern rather than disprove it.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $27.48 | +54.9% | -54.9% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.82 | +31.5% | -31.5% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $9.21 | +24.0% | -24.0% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $174.39 | +11.6% | -11.6% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $74.98 | +7.8% | -7.8% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $12.34 | +5.7% | -5.7% | Incorrect so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $74.53 | +2.2% | -2.2% | Incorrect so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $98.06 | -0.3% | +0.3% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.53 | -3.1% | +4.7% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $287.25 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $122.40 | +10.7% | +10.7% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $53.96 | -11.0% | +11.0% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $6.82 | -12.8% | +12.8% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $342.21 | -16.2% | +16.2% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $17.90 | -18.1% | +18.1% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $201.48 | -18.6% | +18.6% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $291.63 | -25.5% | +25.5% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $213.24 | -44.0% | +44.0% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $7.95 | -44.9% | +44.9% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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