This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: MYRG Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-17 Checkpoint: 2026-09-17 Entry price: $391.51 Latest price: $275.37 as of 2026-09-16 Stock return since entry: -29.7% Signal return: +29.7% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated MYR Group a Sell because I thought the stock was already pricing in a lot of good news while the business still had execution risk. My original concern was that valuation — about 23.4x EV/EBITDA and 29.1x forward P/E — left little room for project timing slips or a slower-than-expected Valley integration, even though the company had strong revenue growth, a 6.8% EBITDA margin, and net cash.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| MYRG (this call) | -29.7% |
| EME | +0.5% |
| FIX | -3.8% |
| FLR | +8.8% |
| MTZ | -32.1% |
| PRIM | -8.7% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that short call has worked: if I had shorted MYRG at my entry price, I would be up about 29.7% over this review window. The stock has fallen while the peer set has been mixed, with several comparables up and several down, which tells me MYRG’s move was not just a uniform sector effect. That supports my valuation-first thesis more than it validates any claim about a broad industry rerating. What I can say with confidence is that the market has not rewarded the stock for the high multiple I flagged, and the downside case has been easier to trigger than the upside case I described.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
Because this review is still active, I would be wrong if MYR Group shows that the higher base is converting into durable earnings power rather than a one-off spike. Specifically, I would want to see revenue stay above $1B per quarter, EBITDA hold above $80M, and free cash flow remain positive; if those conditions persist, my valuation concern would look overstated. I would also reconsider if revenue growth stays above 10% for two straight quarters and EBITDA margin does not drift back toward the mid-5% area, because that would weaken the execution-risk part of my thesis.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $4.78 | +95.9% | -95.9% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $22.81 | +28.6% | -28.6% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.79 | +20.0% | -20.0% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $171.77 | +9.9% | -9.9% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.00 | +7.7% | -7.7% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $70.95 | +2.0% | -2.0% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.04 | -5.4% | +5.4% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $89.82 | -8.7% | +8.7% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.30 | -5.8% | +8.7% | Correct so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $7.09 | -9.4% | +9.4% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $62.77 | -13.9% | +13.9% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $211.81 | -14.5% | +14.5% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $348.57 | -14.6% | +14.6% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $132.78 | +20.1% | +20.1% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $16.72 | -23.5% | +23.5% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $46.28 | -23.6% | +23.6% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $243.64 | -23.7% | +23.7% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $9.05 | -37.2% | +37.2% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $225.62 | -40.7% | +40.7% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
Leave a Comment