This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: UAN Rating: Buy Published: 2026-07-15 Checkpoint: 2026-09-15 Entry price: $110.58 Latest price: $132.61 as of 2026-09-14 Stock return since entry: +19.9% Signal return: +19.9% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated UAN a Buy because I thought the real question was whether the earnings rebound was durable enough to keep cash flow ahead of the cycle, not whether the business had a moat. I pointed to Q1 2026 revenue of $180M, EBITDA of $77.7M, and TTM levered free cash flow of $95.7M as evidence that the asset base was still monetizing well, and I also noted that the board-compliance issue had been repaired. I said I would get more constructive if EBITDA stayed above about $60M and operating margin stayed above 30%, and I would back off if EBITDA fell back toward the low-$20M area or revenue slipped below $140M again.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| UAN (this call) | +19.9% |
| CF | +12.8% |
| IPI | +10.7% |
| MOS | +9.4% |
| YARIY | +0.8% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, following my Buy has earned about 19.9%, so the call has worked on price and the stock has continued to validate the constructive setup I described. The peer group has also been mostly positive, with CF, IPI, MOS, and YARIY all higher over the same window, so UAN has not been an isolated move against a weak fertilizer backdrop. What I can say with confidence is that the original thesis has not been disproven yet: the market has continued to reward the idea that cash generation and cycle resilience matter here. What I cannot claim yet is full confirmation of the stronger version of the thesis, because I still need the next quarters to show that EBITDA really stays above my $60M threshold rather than just reflecting one good stretch.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If the next quarterly results show EBITDA sliding back toward the low-$20M range I flagged, or revenue falling below $140M again, that would tell me the rebound was not durable enough to support the Buy. I would also reconsider if operating margin drops back under 30%, because that would weaken my view that the cost structure is still intact through the cycle. Until then, the main thing that could still prove me wrong is a clear reversal in cash generation rather than just normal quarter-to-quarter noise.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $4.72 | +93.4% | -93.4% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $25.76 | +45.2% | -45.2% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $10.49 | +16.7% | -16.7% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $170.18 | +8.9% | -8.9% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $7.97 | +7.3% | -7.3% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $71.64 | +3.0% | -3.0% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $7.80 | -0.4% | +0.4% | Correct so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.50 | -1.5% | +1.5% | Correct so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $8.51 | -3.4% | +5.1% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $91.13 | -7.3% | +7.3% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $222.91 | -10.0% | +10.0% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.26 | $365.27 | -10.5% | +10.5% | Correct so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $63.98 | -12.2% | +12.2% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $250.13 | -21.7% | +21.7% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.60 | $47.12 | -22.2% | +22.2% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $21.85 | $15.64 | -28.4% | +28.4% | Correct so far |
| MYRG | Sell | $391.51 | $271.75 | -30.6% | +30.6% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $9.41 | -34.7% | +34.7% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $227.70 | -40.2% | +40.2% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
Leave a Comment