This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: LRCX Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-16 Checkpoint: 2026-09-16 Entry price: $343.84 Latest price: $270.87 as of 2026-09-15 Stock return since entry: -21.2% Signal return: +21.2% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated LRCX a Sell because I thought the stock was already priced for a very strong outcome: about 46.5x forward P/E, 65.1x EV/EBITDA, and just a 0.9% FCF yield left little room for disappointment if semiconductor spending softened. My original thesis was that the call would only weaken if revenue stayed above $5.8B, operating margin held above 30.0%, and forward EPS pushed into the high-$8s, because that would show the earnings base was truly supporting the premium multiple.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| LRCX (this call) | -21.2% |
| AMAT | -20.7% |
| KLAC | -16.9% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, the call has worked: if I had shorted LRCX at my entry price, I would be up 21.2% over this review window. The stock has fallen sharply while the comparable names I cited, AMAT and KLAC, have also moved lower, so the whole peer group has been under pressure rather than LRCX uniquely breaking down. That said, the move does not by itself prove my valuation thesis was fully right; it only shows that the market has not been willing to keep paying up for the stock at the level I flagged. The specific risk I named — that the multiple would be unsupported if the revenue and margin base failed to stay strong — has not been disproven by the price action so far.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
What could still prove me wrong is a clean fundamental hold-up in the next report: revenue staying above $5.8B, operating margin remaining above 30.0%, and forward EPS moving into the high-$8s while the stock continues to re-rate higher. If Lam can show that the earnings base is compounding through the cycle and free cash flow remains near the $4.4B area despite buybacks and dividends, then my concern that the valuation was too rich would be weakened. If those metrics hold and the market still refuses to reward the stock, I would need to revisit whether I overestimated how fragile the premium really was.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $23.25 | +33.6% | -33.6% | Incorrect so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $94.64 | +21.5% | -21.5% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $45.96 | +10.3% | -10.3% | Incorrect so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $3.23 | +2.5% | -2.5% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.80 | +0.6% | -0.6% | Incorrect so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $209.69 | -0.4% | +0.4% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.78 | -1.0% | +1.0% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $144.12 | -2.2% | +2.2% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $249.66 | -4.3% | +4.3% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $17.74 | -4.4% | +4.4% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.32 | -5.0% | +5.0% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $6.34 | -6.6% | +6.6% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $2.01 | -4.7% | +7.1% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.53 | -7.3% | +7.3% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $7.08 | -8.8% | +8.8% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.46 | -9.0% | +9.0% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $215.33 | +14.3% | +14.3% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.64 | -20.1% | +20.1% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.25 | -23.8% | +23.8% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
Leave a Comment