This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: SDGR Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-17 Checkpoint: 2026-09-17 Entry price: $17.40 Latest price: $23.93 as of 2026-09-16 Stock return since entry: +37.5% Signal return: -37.5% Verdict: Incorrect so far
This is the 1-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I argued that SDGR was still priced for growth it had not yet earned, even though the platform had a solid gross margin profile at 56.9% TTM. My main concern was that operating cash flow was still deeply negative at -$126.9M TTM, and I thought the 3.9x EV/Revenue and 5.1x P/S multiples were too rich for a business that was not yet converting its moat into durable cash generation.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| SDGR (this call) | +37.5% |
| ABCL | +14.6% |
| CERT | +6.2% |
| CRL | -0.6% |
| RXRX | +11.6% |
| SLP | +0.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that sell call has not worked: if I had followed it, I would be down 37.5% on the signal over the month. The stock has moved sharply higher while the peer set has been mixed to mostly positive, so SDGR has not shown the kind of relative weakness I was looking for when I called it a sell. The specific thesis point that has not been validated is the idea that the valuation was unsupported by the cash profile; at this point, the market has been willing to pay up despite the negative operating cash flow I highlighted. I still cannot claim the cash-flow bridge has been built, but the price action has clearly gone against my bearish timing.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If SDGR can keep re-accelerating revenue while also moving operating cash flow and free cash flow meaningfully toward breakeven, that would directly challenge my original sell thesis. I would also be wrong if the company continues to sustain or expand its current margin profile and the market keeps rewarding that with a higher multiple, even before cash generation turns positive. For now, the key falsifiable test is whether the negative cash flow I flagged proves temporary rather than structural.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $97.42 | +25.1% | -25.1% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $43.19 | +3.7% | -3.7% | Incorrect so far |
| ALT | Sell | $3.15 | $3.24 | +2.9% | -2.9% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.81 | +0.7% | -0.7% | Incorrect so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.76 | -1.5% | +1.5% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $144.43 | -2.0% | +2.0% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $250.74 | -3.9% | +3.9% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $201.96 | -4.0% | +4.0% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $17.69 | -4.7% | +4.7% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.32 | -5.0% | +5.0% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.54 | -6.7% | +6.7% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $7.09 | -8.6% | +8.6% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $6.15 | -9.4% | +9.4% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $9.38 | -9.8% | +9.8% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.95 | -7.6% | +11.4% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $217.32 | +15.3% | +15.3% | Correct so far |
| LRCX | Sell | $343.84 | $269.23 | -21.7% | +21.7% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.54 | -21.9% | +21.9% | Correct so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $7.31 | -23.1% | +23.1% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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