This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: MYRG Rating: Sell Published: 2026-07-17 Entry price: $391.51 Latest price: $309.39 as of 2026-08-27 Stock return since entry: -21.0% Signal return: +21.0% Verdict: Correct so far
This call is still open — LF0 tracks every directional call for 182 days from publication, then freezes the verdict permanently. This one’s tracking window closes 2027-01-15.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated MYR Group a Sell because I thought the stock was already priced for a lot of good news: strong revenue growth, a 6.8% EBITDA margin, and net cash, but also a valuation of 23.4x EV/EBITDA and 29.1x forward P/E that left little room for execution slips. My bear case was that project timing could slip, the Valley acquisition could take longer to integrate, or a fixed-price project miss could quickly pressure margins and earnings.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| MYRG (this call) | -21.0% |
| EME | +4.1% |
| FIX | -3.5% |
| FLR | +10.2% |
| MTZ | -23.8% |
| PRIM | -10.4% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
So far, that short call has worked: following the Sell would have earned about 21.0%, with MYRG down from my entry price. The stock’s move has also come against a mixed peer set, with several comparable contractors higher over the same stretch while others are lower, which tells me MYRG has not simply moved with the group. The specific valuation concern I raised has been at least partly validated, because the market has not continued to reward the company for the same growth profile at the same multiple. I still cannot say the original operating risks have fully played out, but the current price action is consistent with my view that the downside case was easier to trigger than the upside case was to prove.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
I would be wrong if MYR Group keeps delivering the operating numbers I said would justify a higher rating: revenue staying above $1B per quarter, EBITDA holding above $80M, and free cash flow remaining positive. I would also have to reconsider if revenue growth falls below 10% for two straight quarters or if EBITDA margin drifts back toward the mid-5% range, because that would mean the business is weakening in the way I feared. A clean outcome on large fixed-price projects and a smooth Valley integration would also undercut the specific risk I highlighted.
The July 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLST | Sell | $2.44 | $6.08 | +149.2% | -149.2% | Incorrect so far |
| BMNR | Sell | $17.74 | $25.63 | +44.5% | -44.5% | Incorrect so far |
| RDW | Sell | $8.99 | $11.27 | +25.4% | -25.4% | Incorrect so far |
| RCAT | Sell | $7.83 | $9.28 | +18.5% | -18.5% | Incorrect so far |
| QUBT | Sell | $7.43 | $8.65 | +16.4% | -16.4% | Incorrect so far |
| SMR | Strong Sell | $8.81 | $9.74 | +10.6% | -15.8% | Incorrect so far |
| FTNT | Sell | $156.25 | $172.78 | +10.6% | -10.6% | Incorrect so far |
| VSAT | Sell | $69.54 | $72.73 | +4.6% | -4.6% | Incorrect so far |
| MARA | Sell | $11.67 | $11.87 | +1.7% | -1.7% | Incorrect so far |
| AMBA | Sell | $72.90 | $71.16 | -2.4% | +2.4% | Correct so far |
| TTWO | Sell | $247.62 | $233.00 | -5.9% | +5.9% | Correct so far |
| ONTO | Sell | $319.32 | $292.62 | -8.4% | +8.4% | Correct so far |
| TPL | Sell | $408.92 | $369.71 | -9.6% | +9.6% | Correct so far |
| HUT | Sell | $98.33 | $87.13 | -11.4% | +11.4% | Correct so far |
| UAN | Buy | $110.58 | $126.28 | +14.2% | +14.2% | Correct so far |
| AMKR | Sell | $60.71 | $51.74 | -14.8% | +14.8% | Correct so far |
| CIFR | Sell | $19.87 | $16.77 | -15.6% | +15.6% | Correct so far |
| FLNC | Sell | $14.42 | $11.43 | -20.7% | +20.7% | Correct so far |
| MTZ | Sell | $380.63 | $251.13 | -34.0% | +34.0% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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