This is a Scorecard review, revisiting a past LF0 research call against what actually happened.
Ticker: LRCX Rating: Sell Published: 2026-08-16 Checkpoint: 2026-10-16 Entry price: $343.48 Latest price: $277.46 as of 2026-10-15 Stock return since entry: -19.2% Signal return: +19.2% Verdict: Correct so far
This is the 2-month checkpoint for this call. LF0 publishes monthly Scorecard updates through month 6, using the closest available daily close on or before the checkpoint date.
Read the original LF0 analysis
What I Said
I rated LRCX a Sell because I thought the stock was already priced for a lot of good news, with a 46.5x forward P/E, 65.1x EV/EBITDA, and just a 0.9% FCF yield leaving little room for disappointment if semiconductor spending cooled. I also framed the call around specific operating checks: revenue staying above $5.8B and margin staying above 30.0% would have made me more open to a Hold, while a drop back below $5.3B or margin slipping under 30.0% would have strengthened the bearish case.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Return Since Entry |
|---|---|
| LRCX (this call) | -19.2% |
| AMAT | -20.9% |
| KLAC | -17.1% |
Why It’s Working (Or Not)
Following the Sell would have earned 19.2% over this tracking window, so the call has worked to date. LRCX is down from my entry price, which is exactly the direction I wanted from a bearish rating. The peer group has also been lower overall, with AMAT and KLAC both declining over the same stretch, so the move has not been an isolated one. That said, the main thing I was testing was valuation compression against a rich multiple, and the price action has supported that concern more than it has supported the idea that the stock was fully insulated from a slowdown.
What Could Still Prove Me Wrong
If LRCX were to recover sharply while the business still held the same premium valuation, that would weaken my original view that the stock was priced for perfection. A move back above the levels implied by the 46.5x forward P/E and 65.1x EV/EBITDA, without clear evidence that revenue and margins are holding up through the cycle, would make me reconsider the Sell. I would also be challenged if the company continued to show the kind of demand and profitability strength that would justify the high-$8s EPS setup I flagged as the threshold for a more constructive stance.
The August 2026 Cohort
Other directional calls published the same month:
| Ticker | Rating | Entry | Latest | Stock Return | Signal Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | Sell | $17.40 | $25.48 | +46.4% | -46.4% | Incorrect so far |
| VNOM | Sell | $41.67 | $43.73 | +4.9% | -4.9% | Incorrect so far |
| AES | Sell | $14.71 | $14.97 | +1.8% | -1.8% | Incorrect so far |
| RRGB | Sell | $9.51 | $9.14 | -3.9% | +3.9% | Correct so far |
| NUTX | Buy | $188.41 | $200.80 | +6.6% | +6.6% | Correct so far |
| GTN | Sell | $4.83 | $4.46 | -7.7% | +7.7% | Correct so far |
| LHX | Sell | $260.92 | $240.50 | -7.8% | +7.8% | Correct so far |
| WGS | Sell | $77.88 | $70.22 | -9.8% | +9.8% | Correct so far |
| BA | Sell | $210.46 | $188.73 | -10.3% | +10.3% | Correct so far |
| NNDM | Sell | $1.65 | $1.44 | -12.7% | +12.7% | Correct so far |
| OI | Sell | $6.79 | $5.92 | -12.8% | +12.8% | Correct so far |
| ADTN | Sell | $7.76 | $6.53 | -15.9% | +15.9% | Correct so far |
| NXE | Sell | $10.40 | $8.56 | -17.7% | +17.7% | Correct so far |
| PENN | Sell | $18.56 | $15.21 | -18.0% | +18.0% | Correct so far |
| OWLT | Sell | $5.81 | $4.44 | -23.6% | +23.6% | Correct so far |
| STXS | Sell | $1.39 | $1.05 | -24.5% | +24.5% | Correct so far |
| SPHR | Sell | $147.34 | $108.85 | -26.1% | +26.1% | Correct so far |
| SRG | Strong Sell | $2.11 | $1.65 | -21.8% | +32.7% | Correct so far |
Live LF0 scorecard: The Scorecard | Research Performance dashboard
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Returns use LF0’s daily-close scorecard methodology.
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